This poll is *wild*
Head to head Biden wins under 35s by less than three points. He is up 15 points with 65+.
A bunch of the other cross-tabs look basically plausible.
Biden is +5 in the suburbs (+19 with suburban women), +27 with “moderates” (self-ID), and wins 40% of rural whites. If you assume that under-35s are basically impossible to accurately poll in this era the guts of this thing spell an absolute collapse for Trump.
this was basically how he won ga iirc. there weren’t really any more gains for trump to make after decades of dem erosion outside the metro but he had a whole lot to lose in the burbs
yeah, 40% seems wild and wrong (which makes sense, it's a subgroup in a poll) but broadly being stronger is consistent with other polling, which is also odd but explainable w fundamentals re their demographics
Has anybody done an estimate of how many people are going to flip their vote if these polls hold? It must an extraordinary number. 10% of 65+ year olds are going to vote not only for the opposite party they did last time, but literally the opposite person on the same ballot
Some are people coming into and out of the electorate, but I'm guessing this will be a 140m election, 2020 was 160k, so there's a bunch of voters dropping out. I could see reluctant Trump voters in 2020 not voting this time around.
the specific dynamic where the race is the exact same two people seems like it will have weird effects that are hard to predict. also the thing where they have both been president before.
Hillary won over 40% of all whites, but white men were over 65% trump and voted in higher numbers than usual.
40% is probably the floor, not the ceiling.
A lot of rural states are 50-50, and just gerrymandered to heck, which affects turnout
I suspect that Tester & Brown help turnout in MT & OH
I stand corrected. Over 43% of white women should have done it, since there’s usually higher turnout, but damn, did white dudes come out of the woodwork and basements and compounds to vote for Trump. Ugh. 😑
this is one half of the weirdness of polling in this cycle to me, and frankly the tougher one to explain (i.e., you explain Trump's strength with youngs/nonwhite ppl bc they never answer the phones at all; not as true with old white people)
Only reason I could see him winning over maybe 5% (which is where I think he probably sits) is a combo of the "biden old and senile attacks" turning 65 and up off trump, and seeing roe get overturned finally getting them to realize that yes the GOP wants to kill Social Secuirty and Medicare.