Happy #JobsDay 📉📈.
Overall the labor market remains strong.
Fed rate hikes took it off boil, been cooling & now back near pre-pandemic levels. Cooling has taken the form of slower hiring & slower wage growth, not job destruction. Layoffs remain at record lows.
Here's the numbers...
How does recent growth compare to recent years? Economy added 2.61 million jobs over 12 months to June 2024.
That's faster growth than any year ending between 2016 and 2020, though down from recent years.
Job growth has been remarkably strong, especially given braking from Fed, slight deceleration recently:
+ 218K/mo over most-recent 12 months
+ 222K/mo over most-recent 6 months
+ 177K/mo over most-recent 3 months
+ 206K this past month
Contrary to popular impression, fiscal policy at all gov't levels is creating a DRAG on economic growth by -0.71 pp in annualized terms in 2024Q2, per Brookings.
The U.S. labor market remains strong despite braking by fiscal and monetary policy.
www.brookings.edu/articles/hut...
Turning from job growth to unemployment, the unemployment rate ticked up 0.1 percentage point (pp) to 4.1%, and the number of unemployed persons, at 6.8 million, changed little in June but each rose slightly.
This months breaks the streak of unemployment rates at or below 4.0%.
It extends the streak of unemployment rates at or below 4.1%, longest in a half century.
Labor force participation rate (LFPR) was 62.6%, partially reversing a 0.2 percentage point (pp) drop last month.
Boomer retirements push LFPR down about 0.2 pp/year, so June's LFPR, down just 0.4 pp from 5 years prior, is higher than expected based on June 2019’s level & demographic change alone.
