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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 1 yr
This Balz take https://www.washingtonpost.com/politics/2023/07/01/desantis-obama-presidential-campaign-parallels/ on DeSantis ‘24 & Obama ‘08, while good in many respects, leaves out 1 critical factor: the eventual swing towards Obama among AA voters Here’s why that’s important…
Analysis | What do Ron DeSantis and Barack Obama have in common?www.washingtonpost.com Both stumbled at the start of their presidential campaigns against popular front-runners. Obama overcame his problems his problems in 2008 and won the nomination. Can DeSantis do the same next year?
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 1 yr
As I tweeted recently https://twitter.com/billscher/status/1673170151296970756?s=46&t=UQFnqr7o3pD4pT8O2pSljQ no presidential primary candidate with a pre-Iowa national lead as big as Trump has ever lost…
Tweet by @billschertwitter.com
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 1 yr
However Hillary Clinton’s peak ‘08 pre-Iowa lead (28) is close to Trump’s current (31) so it’s arguable that such a collapse is not unprecedented…
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 1 yr
However (again) Obama was able to quickly close the national gap after winning Iowa bc the Black vote swung big… https://www.cnn.com/2008/POLITICS/01/18/poll.2008/index.html
Poll: Obama makes big gains among black voters - CNN.comwww.cnn.com Sen. Hillary Clinton has lost a large amount of support among African-Americans, with a majority of black Democrats now supporting Sen. Barack Obama, according to a new poll out Friday.
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 1 yr
Compared to the Obama ‘08 example, there’s nothing demographically similar in the GOP electorate, and nothing about the nature of DeSantis’ candidacy that’s similarly historic in nature…
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Bill Scher @billscher.bsky.social · 1 yr
We can’t argue that a DeSantis comeback is impossible (unusual unprecedented things can always happen) but envisioning how it happens — based on the dynamics seen over the 50-year modern primary era — is very difficult