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The original ACA subsidy formula was OK at low incomes, stingy at moderate incomes & nonexistent at middle class incomes. ARPA/IRA gave the subsidies a solid upgrade, bringing them up to where they should have been in the first place...but they're scheduled to revert in 2026. 2/
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If the upgraded subsidies are allowed to expire at the end of 2025, up to *20 MILLION* #ACA enrollees will see their net premiums spike dramatically. Many will no longer be able to afford this & will be forced to either downgrade to far worse plans or drop coverage entirely. 3/
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To give you an idea of just how ugly it could get, I'm running the numbers for various household sizes in all 50 states: Single adults, single parents, nuclear families, empty nesters and pre-retirees. These are based on 2024 data; the actual change would happen in 2026. 4/
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Other caveats: --Since benchmark premiums vary depending on where you live, I'm using the CAPITAL CITY for each state. --These assume each household listed enrolls in the BENCHMARK SILVER plan --These don't take into account STATE-BASED subsidies which some states offer 5/
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Since this involves a LOT of graphs & tables, I'm breaking it into 10 posts of 5 states apiece. Last week I posted Alabama - Georgia. Today I present Hawaii, Idaho, Illinois, Indiana & Iowa. Here's what HAWAII looks like: 6/
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A single 30-yr old earning $50K/yr would go from paying $247/mo to $406/mo for the benchmark silver plan...over $1,900 extra per year. 7/
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In IDAHO, a single parent w/1 child earning $30K/year would see their premiums jump from just $2/mo to $105/month...over 50x as much!
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In ILLINOIS, a family of four earning $80,000/year would be hit with an extra $3,300/year in insurance premiums. 9/
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In INDIANA a 50-yr old couple earning $120K/yr with one kid in college would see their premiums jump by 67%.
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And in IOWA, if the upgraded subsidy formula is allowed to expire, starting January 1, 2026, a 60-yr old couple earning $90K/year would see their premiums jump by over $1,100 *per month*.