France is holding its parliamentary elections today.
Clear stakes: Will far-right end up governing France?
And if it fails, what possible coalition will end up governing given fragmentation?
You can follow me for results starting at 2pm ET; but a quick context 🧵:
Let’s start with: In France, president runs the show… as long as their party controls the Assembly. If presidential party loses that control, the president has few domestic powers—no veto, for instance. This isn’t a US-style split government. That’s why stakes today so high.
Macron called these just 4 weeks ago. Decision shocked his own allies.
He already lost his gamble: His bloc is sure to lose seats & its tentative control on Assembly. (He reportedly expected Left would fail to unite, & be knocked out of R1 most places; that didn’t happen.)
4 main blocs that you’ll hear about today:
—“Left bloc”, New Popular Front: a multiparty alliance rebuilt in just a few days
—Macron’s bloc
—Far-right bloc: Le Pen’s party, RN, and new allies
—LR: the traditional conservative parties, that have fallen low but may still matter
France has a two-round runoff system. The first round was last week; it decides what candidates move on to the runoff… which gets complicated.
I broke it down in this quick explainer the other day: boltsmag.org/how-voting-w...
Due to high turnout last week, 311 districts out of 577 ended up with 3-way runoffs: That was expected to help the RN, allowing them to win with < 50% in many places.
But this week was a mad scramble. In 200+ districts, candidates in 3rd place dropped out to block the RN.
That was the reemergence of the “republican front” between counties’ parties, against far-right.
But that front weakened a lot in recent years. Really, the key question today is how well it works among voters—Left voters where Left is absent, Macronists voters where Macronists are absent, etc.
Macron might eventually still pull some strings though. When he regains the ability to dissolve the AN next year, he could hold that over the PM to keep him in line, like Chirac did with Jospin.
