Taniel

@taniel.bsky.social

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Daniel Nichanian. Editor in chief of @bolts.bsky.social

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Some prominent members of the conservative party (LR) backing Left candidates who face the far-right. For instance, head of the Nord region endorsing a Communist candidate: courrier-picard.fr/id538873/art... Or in greater Paris region, LR leader backs a Green candidate in amusing way:

Wildest story yet in France: 1. Far-right/RN candidate said he was dropping out. 2. Turns out: He lied! He filed last minute. 3. Left (in 3rd) had dropped out, then filed once RN said he was out. She tried to drop out again; but too late. So 3 names remain. www.ouest-france.fr/elections/le...

If you feel like there's not enough happening in the news right now, you're in luck: polls open in the United Kingdom in roughly 36 hours.

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Taniel

Very happy to have semi-randomly found @bolts.bsky.social

NEW: The Supreme Court last week blessed bans on sleeping outside, effectively criminalizing homelessness. Are you wondering what that means? Bolts just published a great roundtable with 3 experts that breaks it all down—& how this'll ramp up policing: boltsmag.org/grants-pass-...

“Designed to be Cruel”: How Grants Pass Will Ramp Up the Policing of Homelessnessboltsmag.org The supreme court blessed bans on sleeping outdoors. In a <i>Bolts</i> roundtable, three experts explain that this may encourage aggressive policing over long-term housing solutions.

CNN's new poll: Trump leads Biden 49/43. Trump leads Harris 47/45. Some differences: —Independents: Biden -10%. Harris +3%. —People of color: Biden +21. Harris +29. The side-by-side:

FRANCE UPDATE: What's up today? —Deadline for candidates to decide if they want to stay in a runoff or drop out just passed. —About 20 new Macronist candidates who came 3rd decided to drop out today. Several had said earlier they'd stay in. But still, many staying in—we'll know more momentarily.

A post-debate, New Hampshire poll by St. Anselm: wmur.com/article/poll... Trump up 44% to 42% over Biden. (Biden led by 10% in their last poll, in December.) 54% of those who are aware of the debate say Trump won; 6% say Biden won.

UPDATE: What is happening in France today? Left candidates who came in 3rd are dropping out of the runoffs to block the far-right. *Many* Macronists, including incumbents, are doing the same when they came in third. But... many said they won't. (I'd say about half/half right now? Deadline tmrw.)

Folks, I spent today jumping into weeds of the French election in this thread—you can read it below!—but I'm sure I lost many of you who want the 'big picture'. Let's do a quick AMA for 10-15 minutes: ask me what you want to know!

JUST IN: Polls closed in first round of France elections. Two main French TV estimates (combines early results & exit poll) show strong far-right. Far-right bloc: ≈34% Left bloc: ≈28-29% Macron bloc: ≈20-22% What does this mean? What'll happen? Follow this thread ⬇️

If you're catching up, the news in France in 2 tweets. —Far-right: historic night. They could win majority next week, but nothing certain. —Left: Robust 2nd. Dominating cities. Still, not what it was hoping. —Macronists: 3rd, will lose many seats. Tho many incumbents resisted.

8 minutes to go. Buckle up, it'll be a bumpy afternoon - evening.

It's Election Day in France! The 1st round of the parliamentary elections Macron called just 3 weeks ago. Last polls close at 8pm local time (2pm ET). Exit polls, estimates, first results will drop immediately; so buckle up, follow this space. What to watch?

FRANCE: Exit polls circulating, due to Swiss / Belgium media having no embargo… plus a media source I have! They show what polls found: A strong far-right 1st. Left bloc 2nd. Macron bloc distant 3rd. Various firms finding different gaps between blocs... which is everything.

Note: I'll start a thread with France results at 2pm ET, when estimates drop, & I'll try to keep most of the updates within the thread to not overwhelm US readers who don't care about this. (Follow me to keep track!)

French election update: Far-right RN seems to have surged compared to 2022 in island of La Réunion, which has 7 seats in the Assembly. Left has 6 of 7 incumbents, still seems like it could hold them. But one center-right MP appears to have been ELIMINATED for a left/far-right runoff.

SURGE in turnout in France so far. Turnout at 5pm is 59% of registered voters (orange line). That's already higher than the *overall* turnout in the 2012, 2017, and 2022 elections. (Note: polls projected this; not necessarily indicative of a surprise in overall vote share.)

Results in 18 districts in: —Martinique, Guadeloupe, Guiana (10): Left likely to near-sweep. Same as 2022 —Macronist up Wallis & Futuna + Saint Barth (2) —Right/left runoff in Saint Pierre —Left loses at least 1 seat in Polynesia —Independentists try to win 1st seat in New Caledonia

FRENCH ELECTION: Results are largely known in 10 districts in Martinique & Guadeloupe, & in Guiana. Looks like it’ll be a redo of 2022. Left coalition extremely strong in 8 of them, often > 50% or 60%. Left-leaning candidates (outside of Left coalition) dominating in 2 others.

AMA: if you have questions about what’s at stake in this first round, or what’s going on here, let me know and I’ll do my best to answer in next 30 minutes!

Voting has started in the French elections: expats voting for the 11 “abroad districts”, and residents of regions like Martinique or Guadeloupe away from mainland France, are voting today. Everyone else votes tomorrow. Results starting at 2pm ET.

Today was what it was; but kudos to Delaware for doing its small part to change the mood. 1. Lawmakers passed a bill to repeal the death penalty from state law. 2. The state supreme court authorized early voting & permanent absentee voting, reversing a lower court decision.

"Environmentalists fear that the end of the Chevron doctrine will mean the elimination of hundreds of E.P.A. rules aimed at limiting air and water pollution, protecting people from toxic chemicals and, especially, tackling climate change." www.nytimes.com/2024/06/28/u...

Here’s What the Court’s Chevron Ruling Could Mean in Everyday Termswww.nytimes.com The decision is expected to prompt a rush of litigation challenging regulations across the entire federal government, from food safety to the environment.

Latest polls are so good for far-right in France: Pollster Odoxa asked a generic runoff Q, which is rare. Le Pen's RN candidates would beat Left bloc candidates 55/45. They'd beat Macronist candidates 54/46. Country about to go through an earthquake.

there so much in the US this morning, it feels like I'd be piling on sharing the latest polls of France (two days out from the elections), but I guess I'll still say they could hardly be better for the far-right.

the NYT's frontpage right now is using "THIS IS MAJOR NEWS" treatment on 3 different stories — debate, Chevron, Jan. 6. and if you follow criminal justice (grants pass) & french politics (sunday's election & more polls with far-right gaining today), it's all happening at once.

A bombshell (if predictable) ruling, and a really huge conservative win that'll kneecap administrative agencies very significantly: SCOTUS overturns Chevron on a 6-3 vote. supremecourt.gov/opinions/23p...

The Grants Pass case, SCOTUS' first big homelessness case in a while, dropped. 6-3 conservative majority. "Held: The enforcement of generally applicable laws regulating camping on public property does not constitute “cruel and unusual punishment” prohibited by the Eighth Amendment."

www.supremecourt.gov

I just spent 50 minutes playing piano with headphones while people seemed to be watching something on TV in my living room. How was everyone else’s last hour?