I wrote this within minutes of Macron's decision.
He was right about #1 (tho in part in spite of him; others in his party did a lot more to ensure runoffs become 2-ways).
But wrong about #2. He expected left to split, knocking them out in round 1; but Left united within days.
#4: What Macron may be betting is: Who could possibly win a majority instead of him?
—Election rules make this very hard for Le Pen's party: It's a 2-round system in each district.
—Can divided left possibly coalesce in mere weeks?!
—Traditional conservatives got just 7% today.
As others have said, Macron was too clever by half. He set up EXTRAORDINARILY (record) speedy elections: Only 1 week before filing deadline.
You'd think: No way fractured left unites in that time. Instead, made situation SO URGENT that Left had no time to fight on its issues.
Couldn't help but think of something one of my old bosses talked about regarding settlements in court cases: time kills deals. Making it urgent and focusing them on the immediate task meant a much lower chance for left to fall apart imo (but ofc I'm not a pol scientist so could be off base here)
