ryan cooper: lol www.scmp.com/economy/glob... — Subium • Bluesky web client

Exclusive | Test to ‘no limit’ ties as China wields ‘bargaining power’ over Russian pipelinewww.scmp.com Construction of the Power of Siberia 2 natural gas pipeline is likely to be slower than expected despite the ‘no limit’ strategic partnership between Beijing and Moscow.

Ah, there it is. That vaunted Chinese diplomacy

I am shocked, shocked that they would exploit Russia's dependence on them like this well, not that shocked

there was a joke in one of my groupchats that you could tell that Xi didn't negotiate the israeli ceasefire because nobody had to buy a fertilizer plant from china as part of it

Xi "Always Be Closing" Jinping

the means of production are for closers.

I don't want to think about the prize for 3rd in this scenario

President @dicknixon.bsky.social has argued that a peace deal between Ukraine and Russia would come out of China - I would love to see the US convince China that such a deal would be a good idea

you want the us to convince china to convince russia to leave ukraine?

I see three options: 1. Russia collapses 2. Ukraine collapses 3. a peace deal The US doesn't have the credibility with Russia to negotiate a peace deal. China would. You'd need to convince Xi it was his idea, but Bill Burns is both chief spymaster and a pro diplomat.

I think China could theoretically be in that position. but in reality the CCP seems to be quite diplomatically clumsy and self-centered

Self-centered, certainly (which is why I think you'd need to make Xi think it was his idea) but I guess I'm surprised to hear that they're clumsy.

my man Lu Shaye literally cannot stop putting his foot in his mouth

I see one option russia goes home

If West reduces support for Ukraine, then Ukraine can't fight on. That risk is real.

ukraine will not stop fighting for their lives, they'll just have much less success

Why would US have not the "credibility" to negotiate for Ukraine? The US would get a (informal) mandate from Ukraine and other NATO governments first: do you think Ukraine wouldn't accept a deal?

It's less about Ukraine than Russia - I don't know that Russia's going to want to take a deal the United States gives them

If Russia wants any deal, it has to negotiate with its opponents, not its allies.

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