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Remember how the "retail theft crime wave" disappeared as soon as companies had to do their annual reports? That's because it's illegal to lie to shareholders. AI is booming (if you're a pleb) but if you have money - Goldman Sachs will be honest with you instead web.archive.org/web/20240629...
web.archive.org
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So the chips make sense in making money. As do the energy companies. I also understand cybersecurity making money as AI progresses. In addition, I foresee companies like IBM making some profit in consulting on how to use AI. AI is at the very beginning. It’s all going to take a while to sort out.
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But they are not making money from the AI itself...it's like selling shovels for the promised gold rush
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Right. Like investing in a future that may not happen.
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Yeah like, Nvidia are making the money now cause they're selling the chips everyone needs. Those behind AI and the companies going in either aren't making money or aren't seeing the returns they were promised which is a no brainer given what AI is vs what it's marketed as
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Nvidia is also investing in manufacturing capacity that was scaled for crypto bubble levels of demand for GPUs, and has now pivoted to a new bubble. As soon as they can't find a bubble to fit the demand to...oops.
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And of course they can't stop growing capacity because then shareholders will get upset that growth was only 2% instead of 18% this year or whatever
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This is Frisbee(tm) all over again
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I've heard boom and bust cycles has been the norm for AI since forever
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Barking some revolutionary change in programming, AI isn't actually going to get any better. It's still an algo that doesn't understand, is cooking the planet, is propped up by insane amounts of grossly-underpaid labor in developing nations, & produces results that can't be relied on at all.
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It's entirely possible the bubble bursts and in the next cycle they come up with something useful but as it is there's just not the use cases or the level of adoption. There's a limit on how much money you can throw at something based on vauge promises
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Or to go back to the analogy: I can make bank selling shovels but those digging for gold may not make anything
This is like the dotcom bubble: build a website and the revenue will appear. How? It's a new economy! Lots of money was invested in startups that spent lots of that money with tech providers and then cratered when the new economy somehow failed to materialize.
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And of course the technical service providers are desperate to keep new investment flowing into their customers, so their FOMO marketing budgets are expanding
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You are absolutely right. It will start making money any day now. Anyway, would you like to invest in my AI company?