This is such a key point from Dylan and is not widely understood.
The age skew has a huge effect on the population between elections.
Even if every single person currently alive voted as they did in 2019 the Tories would lose almost their entire majority.
NEWS
Almost exactly three years ago I was lying in hospital after a near death experience promising myself I'd fulfill my ambition to write a book if I recovered.
Well here it is. It has a release date and a cover. It's available to pre-order here:
buff.ly/3Pw9d2v
My starting point was the commonly expressed idea that the UK is now a "high tax" country. Relative to our peers it's just not true. It's much lower than our European counterparts and lower than the OECD average as a % of GDP. (Chart from IFS)
Crucial point: as the polling I did for my post on Reform on Wednesday shows most of their voters are simply not going to go back to the Tories whatever Sunak and Co say. They are lost for this election:
samf.substack.com/p/the-rise-o...
Really remarkable how different UK immigration is to other Western European countries (bar Ireland). This from PISA shows huge differential effects on school systems.
If the govt go ahead and do this when there are so many real problems that need money spent on them it will be unforgiveable (and I say that as someone who would be a beneficiary).
In a poll from August Cameron rated as a better PM than any that followed him but worse (in terms of net rating) than any that came before him. So not popular but less unpopular than most Tories.
"Some people have said shooting Matt Goodwin out of a cannon would boost economic growth and reduce NHS waiting lists?"
Should we:
A) Shoot Matt Goodwin out a cannon
B) Have a worse economy and longer NHS waiting lists
