Duncan Gibb

@duncangibb.net

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Clean heat policy analyst, data cruncher and writer

Senior Advisor at raponline.org
Founder at energyscout.co

🇨🇦 raised 🇩🇪 then 🇨🇵 now

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Duncan Gibb

We’re looking for an intern for up to six months, based in Berlin and help build the clean, reliable, and equitable energy system of the future. Great opportunity for people wanting to get a sense of what’s going on in energy policy in Europe and beyond! www.raponline.org/who-we-are/c...

Careerswww.raponline.org Are you ready to put your passion for a cleaner energy future to work? Join the RAP team. RAP is seeking collaborators who are enthusiastic about clean energy. We’re looking for curiosity, humor and i...

@janrosenow.bsky.social and I looked at the dynamics in heat pump markets last year. Sales struggled in a few countries, but there is a growing trend of heat pumps capturing market share from gas boilers. Available on @carbonbrief.org: www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-h...

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Duncan Gibb

The power grid is the new frontier of the energy transition. In a new policy toolbox for RAP’s website, I have collected regulatory options to: - better use - allocate existing, and - build additional grid capacity. With examples around the globe. All in an interactive table. bit.ly/4dAUNJ0

RIP first come, first servedbit.ly The lack of power grid capacity is evolving to be one of the key barriers in the energy transition. Here is look at many options to tackle grid scarcity.

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HOT OFF THE PRESS: New IEA analysis shows: Key clean energy technologies – solar PV, wind, batteries, electrolysers and heat pumps – rose to USD 200 billion in 2023, an increase of more than 70% from 2022 that accounted for around 4% of global GDP growth. www.iea.org/reports/adva...

Heat pumps are increasing their market share all around the world. Most impressive is the Netherlands. From IEA's report on heat pumps in China. Check it out EnergySky. www.iea.org/reports/the-...

Possibly interesting for the heat punks in EnergySky

This week, France announced more details on its goal to manufacture 1 million heat pumps by 2027. That's around a doubling of its current capacity. It announced ten policy measures to reach this goal and I will zoom in on one of them in a short thread. www.economie.gouv.fr/actualites/p...

Un plan d’action pour produire un million de pompes à chaleur dès 2027www.economie.gouv.fr Conformément aux objectifs fixés par le président de la République, un plan d’action pour produire en France un million de pompes à chaleur dès 2027 a été présenté le 12 avril dernier. Cet effort de p...

Reading between the lines today... 🔍 Hidden deep in otherwise-encouraging news about a large scale heat pump in Stuttgart, lies the mirage of a "hydrogen-ready" gas boiler which will replace coal next year and "in the 2030s" be run on "green hydrogen". Beware... www.enbw.com/unternehmen/...

🔥New @regassistproj.bsky.social paper on a flexible policy for decarbonising heat. Clean heat standards are low-emissions performance requirements that place the decarbonisation responsibility on industry instead of consumers. We dig into the how and the what. www.raponline.org/knowledge-ce...

Clean heat standards handbookwww.raponline.org Policymakers across the globe are searching for solutions to reduce the use of fossil fuels and their associated climate impacts. Attention has focused on For policymakers seeking solutions to reduce ...

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Duncan Gibb

We are now beyond peak fossil gas in the Netherlands. Never has the country used less gas compared to 40 years ago. This will only accelerate in future years drive by policy and regulation. Data: CBS 2024, HT @soxenaar.bsky.social at @regassistproj.bsky.social

This development of heating systems in new-builds in Germany is not that great. Look how many gas systems are still being installed in NEW buildings through 2022-2023!

Das ist doch mal eine sehr gute Entwicklung!

New survey of German landlords shows that around 2/3 of them are unaware that up to 70% of the heat pump cost is paid for by public subsidies. www.computerbild.de/artikel/cb-H...

Umfrage: Staatliche Wärmepumpen-Förderung nur wenig bekanntwww.computerbild.de Laut einer Umfrage wissen viele Deutsche nicht, dass es beim Kauf einer neuen Wärmepumpe finanzielle Zuschüsse vom Staat gibt.

In case you didn't know, a pie chart in French is called a "camembert". Bon appétit.

It was a good joke when the LLMs were first released but now it feels like the burden of proof is on the AI companies to prove that their software isn't just underpaid Indians copying and pasting.

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Duncan Gibb

The bank of the Seine in Paris. This used to be surrendered space for cars. For several years now it’s been a special place for people. All it took was leadership. Including fighting and winning a court battle when that leadership was challenged. HT @EmmanuelSPV for the great pic.

I doubt I will ever trust any machine as much as the Parisians who shove a leg between the closing doors of a metro.

Reposting for friends in EnergySky. Take a look!

Today’s heat pump deep dive from @regassistproj.bsky.social is about Slovakia. 🇸🇰 We’ve looked at the situation in developed markets (🇫🇷) and emerging markets (🇵🇱). If you’re curious about some of the key barriers in a struggling market, this thread is for you. 🧵 www.raponline.org/knowledge-ce...

Cleaning up heat: Policy and the economics of heat pumps in Slovakiawww.raponline.org Slovakia’s climate plans call for decarbonising buildings, shifting to clean technologies and reducing energy consumption. Fossil fuels currently provide RAP analysed the national policies, regulation...

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Duncan Gibb

My first humble attempts to represent the barriers to industrial electrification visually. What did I miss? Any suggestions for making this better / more impactful? Any sources I should include not listed below diagram?

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Duncan Gibb

Yesterday EU member states agreed to extend commitment to cutting fossil gas demand by at least 15%. But how? Key options are: 🌞 renewables 🏡energy efficiency ⚡️electrification More in our briefing👇 www.raponline.org/knowledge-ce... @regassistproj.bsky.social @e3g.bsky.social

We now have the figures for residential and commercial gas demand in France: a decrease of 22% from 2021-2023. (Distributions publiques in the chart.) No wonder the network tariffs are rising. www.grtgaz.com/sites/defaul...

As more houses disconnect from the gas grid the fixed costs will be shouldered by an increasing small group of customers. We need a gas decommissioning plan to avoid the poorest households getting caught in gas DSO death spirals.

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Duncan Gibb

Imagine you're in that central little yellow country. You're talking to your parents about heat pumps, traditional radiators, and how they should not replace their ageing oil furnace with a fossil gas boiler, when the energy agency online tool tells them to opt for a hybrid heat pump. Fun. 🔌💡

Prepping a presentation for government officials on how to decarbonize heating for low-income households and asked myself... "how is the electricity to gas price ratio doing in Europe these days?" Not great.

Hydronic heat pumps are taking a greater and greater share of Europe's market. That includes both air-to-water for space heating and domestic hot water. Ground-source heat pumps have been growing too, but their overall market share has declined as air-to-water has taken off. More at www.ehpa.org.

When I worked at REN21 and we saw the growth of renewables (in final energy), it looked good and was accelerating. But it was never enough to cover the overall increase in energy demand. It was just displacing fossil fuels. This shows that we're getting ever-closer to no fossil growth at all.

The IEA just published two fascinating reports Here are some of the best charts 1/ Clean energy is growing twice as fast as fossil fuels

In case you missed it, here's the CEO of an oil company that knew about climate change 50 years ago and repeatedly hid this knowledge for profit blaming activists for failing to meet global climate goals. Blood boiling stuff. thehill.com/policy/energ...

Exxon CEO blames public for failure to fix climate changethehill.com The world isn’t on track to meet its climate goals — and it’s the public’s fault, a leading oil company CEO told journalists. Exxon Mobil Corp. CEO Darren Woods told editors from …

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Duncan Gibb

so much of the pronoun bullshit is just people being angry at being asked to treat others with a basic level of respect you don't have to understand gender dysphoria or being nonbinary or neopronouns to just... respect people's wishes about how they want to be addressed

It's troubling to see the European heat pump market stalling compared to its rapid growth of previous years. I shared my thoughts with the Guardian today. www.theguardian.com/environment/...

Environmentally friendly heat pumps hit slump in Europe, says lobby groupwww.theguardian.com Sales fell 5% over 14 countries for which data exists, according to the European Heat Pump Association

Europe's heat pump growth has STALLED. 🔥🛑 Across 14 countries, around 5% fewer heat pumps were installed in 2023 than in past years. These countries made up more than 90% of the market in 2022. 🧵

This is so grim.

More and more, the world's emissions are concentrated in cities: 70% in 2020 compared to 62% in 2015. Concerningly, only 27% of countries have made strong commitments to urban action in their NDCs. Interesting new study from UN Habitat: unhabitat.org/local-action...