Gesine Weber

@gesineweber.bsky.social

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European defence (EU, France, UK, Germany) & geopolitics.

Fulbright-Schuman Visiting Researcher at Arnold A. Saltzman Institute for War and Peace Studies, Columbia University, & PhD candidate at Defence Studies Department, KCL. Matcha and sunrise lover.

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In German: Gastbeitrag für @nzz.ch zur strategischen Wende Frankreichs. Anmerkung: wir haben den Beitrag vor der Auflösung der Assemblée Nationale fertiggestellt - die Macrons Glaubwürdigkeit nochmals schwächen dürfte. www.nzz.ch/meinung/macr...

www.nzz.ch

Back to this platform after a short break - and sharing my latest for @warontherocks.bsky.social as a weekend read: warontherocks.com/2024/05/31143/

Give France Credit for Its Strategic Change - War on the Rockswarontherocks.com After openly discussing the potential of sending NATO troops to Ukraine recently, French President Emmanuel Macron is now being described as “the hawk” in

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Gesine Weber

After having relied for decades on US support, Europeans will have to shoulder a much more significant burden in European security themselves in the foreseeable future. @gesineweber.bsky.social breaks down how it can happen:

Europe Can No Longer Afford Not to Defend Itselfwww.worldpoliticsreview.com After relying for decades on US defense support, Europe will have to shoulder a much more significant security burden in the foreseeable future.

Fresh off the virtual press after the conference on Ukraine support: briefing for @wpr.bsky.social. A stronger Europe - call it European strategic autonomy, European sovereignty, open strategic autonomy - is a strategic necessity, not an end in itself. t.co/0CyDuJqhiY

Europe Can No Longer Afford Not to Defend Itselft.co After relying for decades on US defense support, Europe will have to shoulder a much more significant security burden in the foreseeable future.

This one aged well: I wrote it one year ago, but it's as least as relevant today as it was in early 2023. Whether you call it strategic autonomy, European sovereignty, or anything else: I still think abandoning this project is geopolitical surrender. t.co/WdXwWC3bxH

Abandoning strategic autonomy is geopolitical surrender for the EUt.co Europe is dependent on US security guarantees and will remain so for the foreseeable future - but calls to abandon the pursuit of strategic autonomy are short-sighted in light of the geopolitical chal...

Borrell certainly has a point when he urges EU states to "stop exporting weapons & send them to Ukraine" - it is a political decision. But there is a lot of money at stake, so that a financial incentive (aka support) from the EU is needed. www.euronews.com/my-europe/20...

Borrell asks EU countries to stop exporting weapons except to Ukrainewww.euronews.com Member states should temporarily halt exports of weapons to countries other than Ukraine, Josep Borrell said on Monday, asking governments to take a "political decision" and step up ammunition supplie...

The European Peace Facility (EPF) has been critical to ensure arms supply to Ukraine. Interesting: EPF might shift from reimbursement to member states for weapon for Ukraine to direct funding of arms contracts & financing joint production. www.ft.com/content/9b72...

German opposition to reform of EU fund risks delaying arms to Ukrainewww.ft.com Berlin wants different rules on how €5bn funding for Kyiv-bound weapons should work

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"The United States on Friday carried out a series of military strikes against Iran-backed militants in half a dozen sites in Iraq and Syria, according to a U.S. Defense Department official, marking a sharp escalation of the war in the Middle East" - NY Times

Middle East Crisis: U.S. Conducts Retaliatory Strikes in Iraq and Syria Against Iranian Proxieswww.nytimes.com The move, in response to a drone attack that killed three U.S. soldiers in Jordan, was an escalation of hostilities in the Middle East.

It's been a while: as it's #FollowFriday, I'm sharing some great accounts from young experts I would recommend to follow: @nuclearbalm.bsky.social @marierbn.bsky.social @melissali.bsky.social @michelsei.bsky.social @brandonbohrn.bsky.social @franziskastaerk.bsky.social @rafaelloss.bsky.social

"If Europe seems hesitant to endorse a judicial ruling from a court as important as the ICJ when it goes against an ally, it will further entrench a perception of double standards that Europe is already trying to combat." Anthony Dworkin on the spot. ecfr.eu/article/cour...

Court order: Why Europeans should support the ICJ’s decision on South Africa’s genocide case aga...ecfr.eu Despite their disagreements over the case, it is crucial that European countries support the implementation of the ICJ’s provisional measures

This is one of the reports/ policy papers I dive into every year - it's a very valuable ressource for everyone working on European security and defence.

An organisation-wide effort, the Watch List for the European Union highlights 10 conflicts where the EU and its member states can make a difference: www.crisisgroup.org/global/watch...

Recap of all meetings related to Geopolitical Europe to follow this week: 🇪🇺🌍 Thursday, 1 Feb: Special European Council (MFF, Russia, Middle East, Versailles declaration) Friday, 2 Feb: EU-ASEAN Ministerial Meeting, EU-Indo-Pacific Ministerial Forum

The UK's evolving role in European security & defence is sometimes overlooked in the current debate. @rgwhitman.bsky.social has an excellent recap, and why "a more formal relationship between the two in the areas of foreign, security and defence policy remains to be desired".🇬🇧

The role of the UK in a new European security architecture - my piece for @boell.de www.boell.de/en/2024/01/2...

Super interesting read:

Late to this good (and slickly designed) CFR study on the sizable challenges the PLA would confront if it attempts a full-scale invasion of Taiwan. A few brief comments, however: (1/5)

Why China Would Struggle to Invade Taiwanwww.cfr.org Although China’s ambition to gain control of Taiwan is clear, doing so through force would prove enormously difficult and costly.

Special European Council on Thursday, 1 Feb. Agenda: 💸 MFF, incl. 50 bio support package for Ukraine 🇷🇺 Russia, incl. the question of frozen assets 🪖Security & defence: taking stock of Versailles + Middle East + enlargement epthinktank.eu/2024/01/29/o....

Outlook for the special European Council meeting on 1 February 2024 | Epthinktank | European Parliam...epthinktank.eu The main objective of the special European Council meeting on 1 February 2024 is to finalise EU leaders’ position on the revision of the multiannual financial framework (MFF).

What's the Macron-Modi duo all about, and how is it related to strategic autonomy? If you read French, the authors of this article in @lerubicon.bsky.social have the answer for you: lerubicon.org/macron-a-new...

Macron à New Delhi : une quête partagée d'autonomie stratégique dans un monde multipolairelerubicon.org « Nous savons que l’Inde sera une superpuissance très difficile à gérer, à l’image d’une France à grande échelle. » Ce commentaire d’un ancien conseiller à la sécurité nationale du ...

Is Europe ready for fight Putin alone? Certainly not. Does it have to prepare this scenario (Trump presidency)? Absolutely. Long European defence feature in @politico.eu by @laukaya.bsky.social et al, comments by @bctallis.bsky.social, Ed Arnold, & yours truly. www.politico.eu/article/euro...

Europe’s Trump challenge: Is it ready to fight Vladimir Putin alone?www.politico.eu The Continent contemplates the end of its Pax Americana.

Always a pleasure to join podcasts/ shows I usually listen to myself: at Le Temps du Débat, we discussed the challenges ahead for European defence (in French): www.radiofrance.fr/francecultur...

L'Europe doit-elle revoir sa stratégie militaire ?www.radiofrance.fr Alors que deux guerres se déroulent aux frontières de l’Europe et que l’UE vient de lancer une mission en mer Rouge, nous nous intéressons à la question de la sécurité et de la défense euro...

Creating an EU defence and readiness fund, as suggested by @maxbergmann.bsky.social in this piece, could be a real game changer to step up the defence of Europe. Such an initiative would also greatly benefit NATO. www.csis.org/analysis/eur...

Europe Needs a Paradigm Shift in How It Supports Ukraine | CSISwww.csis.org A new paradigm is urgently needed for Europe’s military support for Ukraine. The challenge entails getting European defense industries to ramp up production. This requires significant new funding an...

One of the best papers I have read on European defence and NATO's Washington summit so far. @danielfiott.bsky.social provides an impressive amount of details and concrete ideas that are well worth your time.

❗️New In-Depth Paper❗️ "The Turning Tide? A European Agenda for the Washington Summit", by Daniel Fiott Read now🔸 csds.vub.be/publication/...

France launched "artillery coalition" with Ukraine. - around 50 contributing states/ Ramstein Group - five sub-clusters based on capacities - aim: short-term support and building long-term air defence structures for Ukraine - co-headed by France and US www.defense.gouv.fr/actualites/u...

www.defense.gouv.fr

Wrote a thing about the EU’s response to the situation in the Red Sea, and how flexible forms of defence cooperation could contribute:

"As these routes are so vital for European trade, the EU – including the UK until Brexit – has been involved as a security provider in the Red Sea for several years." @gesineweber.bsky.social explores European maritime security cooperation in the Red Sea. ukandeu.ac.uk/maritime-sec...

Maritime security cooperation in the Red Sea: towards flexible European approaches? - UK in a changi...ukandeu.ac.uk Gesine Weber unpacks European maritime security cooperation in the Red Sea, exploring the prospect of further forms of involvement.

If you consider where the EU is coming from, its support to Ukraine, and everything that has been done in terms of EU defence structures, is massive. But: it is still far away from where it needs to be. www.economist.com/europe/2024/...

Can Europe arm Ukraine—or even itself?www.economist.com More weapons production is a hedge against a Trump presidency

The elections in Taiwan this weekend were closely followed in European capitals 🇹🇼. How did the reactions from Paris, London, Berlin, and Brussels look like? 🇫🇷🇬🇧🇩🇪🇪🇺 Quick 🧵:

If you read German, this one should be on your weekend reading list: @rafaelloss.bsky.social from @ecfr.bsky.social on the debates on the German public debt limits and support for Ukraine.

New year, new role, new Gastbeitrag für ZEIT Online Die Bundesregierung wartet die Katastrophe herbei www.zeit.de/politik/ausl... (€)

Ukraine-Hilfe und die Schuldenbremse: Die Bundesregierung wartet die Katastrophe herbeiwww.zeit.de Die Ampel will die Schuldenbremse lockern, sollte sich die Lage der Ukraine drastisch verschlechtern. Das ist zu spät. Europäische Regierungen müssen jetzt handeln.

UK foreign secretary calling in an op-ed for humanitarian access to Israel - after UK has abstained in the votes at the UN calling for a ceasefire. Interesting development. www.theguardian.com/commentisfre...

Israel must act now to let aid through and save lives in Gaza. Britain has a plan to help that happe...www.theguardian.com With crossings opened for longer, water supplies restored and UN staff able to safely distribute food, we can limit the scale of this catastrophe, says David Cameron, Britain’s foreign secretary

Couldn't agree more, particularly on the "before forming an opinion" part.

I strongly recommend that you read this historical background on the Houthi, Yemen, Saudi Arabia and the West before forming an opinion on today’s military strikes in the Red Sea. engelsbergideas.com/essays/the-h...

The Houthis’ forgotten war goes globalengelsbergideas.com The Houthis emerged in Yemen as an Islamist movement in the late 1980s. Following the war in Gaza, their significance has grown as they disrupt trade through the Red Sea, with dangerous potential for ...

New UK 🇬🇧 military support package to Ukraine: - £2.5 bio in 2024/2025 financial year (increase by £200 mio) - incl. long-range missiles - largest delivery of drones Ukraine has received so far from any country www.gov.uk/government/n...

I am surprised that the alarm bells only start ringing now in Europe - as if US elections were a surprise. There’s a lot to do.

Lagarde says Trump represents ‘a threat’ to Europe https://on.ft.com/41Ruf0N

Lagarde says Trump represents ‘a threat’ to Europeon.ft.com ECB president’s words encapsulate rising anxiety among EU leaders about US election

Call for a Weimar+UK - or E3 plus Poland, call it as you wish - initiative for a European (military) support package for Ukraine.

Die Debatte über den Taurus darf nicht verdecken, dass es der Ukraine vor allem an dem mangelt, was gar nicht streitig ist: Munition, Luftverteidigung, Kampfpanzer etc. Das Weimarer Dreieck (🇫🇷🇵🇱🇩🇪) sollte JETZT mit 🇬🇧 die Initiative für ein großes europäisches Hilfspaket ergreifen.