Glen Peters

@glenpeters.bsky.social

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Energy, emissions, & climate
CICERO Center for International Climate Research, Oslo, Norway
https://cicero.oslo.no/en/employees/glen-peters

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Just as our parents & ancestors made the decisions that caused the global warming we see today, the decisions society makes today will have profound impacts for our children & grandchildren. kids.frontiersin.org/articles/10....

How has Australia's LULUCF reporting changed with each new submission to UNFCCC? This was for Ketan Joshi, but where is he?

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Glen Peters

This is incredibly cool! The goal @glenpeters.bsky.social & @meinshausen.bsky.social had was explaining climate science to a fifth grader. But honestly... most of us would benefit from an explanation at this level!

Explain it to me like I am a fifth grader... That was the goal in this article with @meinshausen.bsky.social: "We Are Not on Track: Greenhouse Gas Emissions Are Higher Than Ever!" Did we succeed? kids.frontiersin.org/articles/10....

I was reminded of this great figure created by Damon Matthews some 10+ years ago... Zero CO2 emissions (red) leads to declining CO2 concentrations & constant temperature. To maintain constant CO2 concentration (blue), requires continued CO2 emissions & rising temperature.

Do the SSPs include the IMO shipping regulations? Yes... The most used scenarios SSP1-19, SSP1-26, SSP2-45, SSP5-85 all include IMO regulations...

Commercial electricity demand has been revised up in the US due to data centers (AI presumably). Does this mean we expect to see a similar upward revision in GDP due to productivity increase, or is AI just a overblown waste of resources? 😲 www.eia.gov/outlooks/steo/

Nitrous Oxide (N2O) is no laughing matter, atmospheric N2O has increased 25% due to human activities. Today the Global Carbon Project updates the Global Nitrous Oxide Budget, which helps us understand where the N2O comes from and where it goes. essd.copernicus.org/articles/16/... 1/

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Glen Peters

Since Paris Agreement, there has been a flurry of 'Paris-aligned' or '1.5°C-aligned' pledges by individual countries & companies. New paper argues that such declarations are questionable, especially if they're made without explicitly stating underlying assumptions www.tandfonline.com/eprint/TDMKT...

Questionable at best: why links between mitigation by single actors and global temperature goals must be made more robustwww.tandfonline.com In the academic and grey literature, near- and mid-term mitigation trajectories by single actors (countries, firms, cities or regions) are often labelled with terms including long-term temperature ...

Representative Concentration Pathways (RCPs). They are just one element of a bigger puzzle. Should scenarios start at concentration, or emissions, or socioeconomics? Should they start at temperature and go backwards? All have advantages... gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/... 1/

A new multi-model study finds the radiative forcing from the IMO shipping regulations was 0.06-0.09 W/m2 (low compared to other estimates, eg, Yuan et al 0.2W/m2) The change corresponds to an increase in CO2 concentration over the 2-3 years. In review: egusphere.copernicus.org/preprints/20...

Greenhouse gas emissions are at record highs, again. The only good news is that Ozone Depleting Substances (ODS) regulating under the Montreal Protocol have declined substantially in the last decades. But what does all this mean for climate? essd.copernicus.org/articles/16/... 1/

For those that appreciate the difference between natural and anthropogenic carbon sinks...

Do Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) consider all available technologies? No. * Dashed: GCAM Global Carbon Price * Dotted: GCAM Max Sectoral Effort * Grey: AR6 database F-gas emissions: Most scenarios do not consider Kigali Amendment! iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1... 1/

It is worth looking at the fallout of the IMO regulations, but I am not sure why people want to call them geoengineering "termination shock". We have a long-term decline in SO2 emissions, some years with large drops. In any case, a good summary here: www.theclimatebrink.com/p/a-problema...

Mitigating hard on each sector comes with some advantages, compared to just having a carbon price: it leads to much greater reductions in methane... Bigger drops in methane emissions helps bring the temperature down. Lower peak, lower long-term. iopscience.iop.org/article/10.1...

For a treasure trove of graphics & data, visit @robbieandrew.bsky.social webpage: from EVs to CO2 to consumption to India to the odd Kiwi to... (the figures are updated regularly as the latest data comes in, so check back daily!) robbieandrew.github.io

A very cool booklet of infographics & information on climate change factsonclimate.org/atlas

What is the current level of global warming: * 1.2°C average of the last 10 years * 1.3°C last datapoint in the 15 year trend * 1.5°C last datapoint unadjusted (in one dataset) Great figure, amongst many others, open for peer review: essd.copernicus.org/preprints/es...

For the IPCC junkies out there... We have 10 articles on improving the IPCC in our npj Climate Action Special Collection. Get reading: www.nature.com/collections/...

SSP3 & SSP4 supposedly bring in equity though "challenges to adaptation", but when comparing "historical responsibility" from 2100 based on different scenarios, we found very little variation across SSPs (left), models were mode important. link.springer.com/article/10.1...

"Implemented policies result in projected emissions that lead to warming of 3.2°C, with a range of 2.2°C to 3.5°C (medium confidence)" According to the landmark, widely reported IPCC Synthesis Report published in 2023. ipcc.ch/report/ar6/s... 1/

Czechia had a huge increase in forest loss (drought, bark beetles, etc) in the last fives years. What happened to the forest products? It was matched with a significant increase in harvest (presumably salvage), most of which was exported. 1/

With all these ongoing discussions about scenarios and their use in IPCC & UNFCCC contexts, it is worth winding the clock back 30 years and pondering what the IPCC was writing about scenarios in 1994... www.ipcc.ch/report/clima...

Have you seen the version of the Global Carbon Budget slides embedded in your webpage? Nice and easy to view, and a good recap of the key findings from the Global Carbon Budget 2023: robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2023/slid...

To keep below 1.5°C, with a 50-50 chance, would require global CO2 emissions to be zero in ~2038 (orange line). The other scenarios (blue) overshoot to ~1.6°C before going back <1.5°C in 2100 (& they start with a global carbon price in 2020). 1/

Which countries extract the most carbon from the ground (coal, oil, gas)? robbieandrew.github.io/GCB2023/extr...

China making us look good on climate technologies again...

No matter if you love or hate Carbon Capture & Storage (CCS), I think it is quite fair to say that it is one technology which has never lived up to expectations... Blue: current capture capacity Purple: Net Zero 2050 pathways

"Early final harvests are often motivated by forest health problems, changes in land use, and neighbours harvesting. The latter is simply that the forest owner gets the felling done because the logging team is available in that area" partner.sciencenorway.no/forestry-for...