Zeke Hausfather: With half the month now behind us, June 2024 is very likely to be the warmest June on record. It is on track to beat 2023's record by nearly 0.2C, and may represent an ominous sign that global temperatures are not falling very quickly despite the fading of El Nino conditions.

With half the month now behind us, June 2024 is very likely to be the warmest June on record. It is on track to beat 2023's record by nearly 0.2C, and may represent an ominous sign that global temperatures are not falling very quickly despite the fading of El Nino conditions.

Here is my latest projection for June 2024 temperatures compared to all the prior Junes in the ERA5 record. There's now a >95% chance that this year will set a new record based on the past relationship between the first 15 days of the month and the ultimate monthly temperature.

Finally, here is the evolution of daily temperatures so far in 2024 compared to 2023 and prior years. While there was a brief period where temperatures this year fell below 2023's levels, they have remained persistently hot.

We will closely be watching what happens to global temperatures over the next few months as El Nino fades and La Nina conditions start to develop. As @climateofgavin.bsky.social noted in Nature earlier this year: nature.com/articles/d41...

I have two words: uh oh.

Does this mean global temperatures will never go back down to below 1.5?

They almost certainly will. Just not as fast as some of us were hoping. It’s still a bit to be determined what the anomalies of 2023 and 2024 mean for projections going forward.

That makes me feel a little bit better. My first thought is always that models are getting it wrong even though I know that isn’t true.

This is clearly very bad. Are there any indications that this is a tipping point-type phenomenon?

Try telling that to the UK 🥶

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