Massive outlier and I have... doubts about the new YouGov methodology...
... but we do seem to be seeing signs of tactical sorting. This is getting quite close to worst case scenario for the Tories
Sky News / YouGov exclusive poll. Ed Davey’s antics are paying off.
** Tories joint lowest VI share in Parliament
** Reform just ONE point behind
** Lab down 3; LD up 4
LAB 38% (-3),
CON 18% (-1),
RefUK 17% (+1),
LDEM 15% (+4),
GRN 8% (+1)
Fieldwork Mon/Tue (around Lib Dem manfiesto coverage)
It looks like a duff sample (and another firm out in the field during the same period has not shown anything like it), but it is interesting that an outliers of that type can now be vomited up.
E.g. people at Millbank in 1997 fretted massively at the rogue ICM that showed only a 5pt Labour lead... but the real tell was that that was all a rogue poll ended up showing.
Will help enormously with LD activist morale/enthuiasm either way, which presumably is always an issue with all party activists half way through a campaign but especially LD this last couple of times.
