The big one is the YouGov crossover (tho I don't credit that as real) but we're getting multiple polls with the Tories around or below 20%, Reform high and, worst of all, a bit of a Lib Dem surge which seems drive by tactical sorting.
They're fucked
Round here (NW Essex) they have a moribund website, no posters in houses or fields, no public presence and they're doing their leaflets by post. Either they're confident that they don't have to campaign, or they've just given up completely.
And thats one of their stronger areas, of course.
I've travelled a lot in the last 4 weeks and this far I haven't seen a single Tory poster across what should be a core region for them (Somerset, glos, rural Yorkshire