There are some broad points of clarity that have emerged from the French legislative elections, but much more uncertainty about the practical impact.
I'll start with the points of clarity.
1. The front républicain is still viable, but it is much more febrile than even two years ago.
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Macron can take some satisfaction in the fact that the far right was turned back, and also in the much better than expected results for his centrist coalition.
But he needed the help of the same left he was demonizing a week ago, and has asked too much too often of people that truly despise him.
And there was more acrimony within Macron's centrist coalition regarding whether the far left is as much of a danger as the far right, a point of disaccord that augurs poorly for the front républicain in any configuration further to the left.
2. We'll need to see the overall vote totals to compare to the first round and the European Parliament voting. But the RN has clearly expanded its range, both geographically and demographically, doing much better in former strongholds of the left and center-right in some 2-candidate duels it lost.
I suspect that a good part of the RN's gains may be conjunctural (cost of living) and in reaction to Macron. A lot of the drivers of discontent (rural desertification) have been around a long time. And the party ran a savvy campaign, after having "professionalizing" its image since 2022.
But even if the RN surge is conjunctural, it is unlikely to revert quickly. It's worth recalling, too, that whatever has taken hold is not unprecedented in France. Similar to what we've seen in the US, the "de-demonization" of various expressions of bigotry and prejudice exercises a powerful pull.
3. Still, for all the RN surge, it still came up short. It raised its floor in the first round, and we'll need to see the vote totals to know how much it raised its ceiling in the second. But for now that is still clearly not enough for a parliamentary majority, let alone a presidential majority.
4. That's a very reassuring outcome for France and for Europe. But this is not an electoral result that invites triumphalism ot complacency. To the contrary, it demands self-examination by Macron, and above all, it demands results in the form of political accomplishments to come.
That's where the much greater uncertainty that emerged from the elections comes into play. Because right now, anyone who pretends to have any idea how the balance of power in the new parliament will shake out and how it will function institutionally is lying either to themselves or to everyone else.
The RN clearly lost this election, because it was explicitly aiming for a majority and expecting to finish first, but ended up in third place.
But no one actually won, and the pathway toward a functioning majority, though obvious in the abstract, looks impossible in practice.
In principle, the majority coalition would span from the center-left (Greens, Place Publique and Socialists) to the center (Ensemble, MoDem) to the center-right (Horizons), with support from the LR that didn't follow Ciotti.
In practice, the center-left is stronger with the New Popular Front, and there's no small amount of antipathy between the center-left and LR, and even between the center-left and Horizons, to say nothing of between the center-left and Macron.
5. The result for now looks like a badly hung parliament that will struggle to even fill its parliamentary leadership positions, let alone settle on a prime minister and government.
The resulting political paralysis could benefit the RN's grievance-based politics.
