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A lot of current analysis of the future elections forgets that governments have autonomy and must also react to unexpected events
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When the exit poll for 2019 came out I was pretty sure that was a defeat you couldn't recover from in one term. Governments have autonomy! Including autonomy to fuck up
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get elected to deliver bc the other lot weren't and you've at least got to show "green shoots" but equally Tories shouldn't think they'll be the first choice for a protest vote
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It used to be a mantra of British politics, taught to politics students that "governments lose elections, opposition parties don't win them" and I think it holds up well as an explanation for thr 21st century
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I figured Labour had a chance, as it was unlikely the Conservatives would be able to deliver a fraction of Johnson's promises, but I didn't think they'd keep making more promises they couldn't keep...