Kevin Carey

@kevincareywb.bsky.social

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World Bank
Macro / Climate
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Prof. Frances Moore (UC Davis): "Greater uncertainty over the current climate distribution interacts with a steeply non-linear damage function to greatly increase the mean and variance of the posterior loss distribution ..."

"[Karen Clark] said that “what lay people don’t realize is that the primary drivers of increasing hurricane losses have been demographics” and the rising cost of construction." finance.yahoo.com/news/fund-ma...

The Fund Managers Modeling Catastrophe Keep Winning Their Betsfinance.yahoo.com (Bloomberg) -- Last month, amid reports that Hurricane Beryl would become the earliest Category 5 hurricane in history, a group of money managers were busy trying to figure out whether their highly ca...

"The analysis in Zambia, Ghana, Rwanda, Morocco and Mauritius showed that firms in certain sectors could see profits as much as halve over the next two decades if impacts like deforestation and the loss of pollinators like bees continue to be ignored." www.reuters.com/business/fin...

African bank stress test flags systemic risks posed by nature losswww.reuters.com A stress test of five of Africa's banking systems has found some lenders in the region could face collapse if nature loss slashes the profits of agriculture and forestry firms they have lent to.

"Such costs “are felt through a variety of channels including power loss, the loss of work days, productivity, property damage and higher insurance premiums,” said Chris Lafakis, a climate economist with Moody’s Analytics." ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/hurrica...

Hurricane Beryl’s Cascade of Crises Was a Sign of Storms to Comeca.finance.yahoo.com (Bloomberg) -- For most of us, disaster damage brings to mind the immediate impacts of a violent storm, like houses with their roofs torn off. Most Read from BloombergBlackRock Says Gunman From Trump ...

"The U.S. agriculture and construction industries alone lose an estimated $100 billion of productivity a year due to extreme heat, according to a report by insurance broker Aon in March." www.wsj.com/business/ene...

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"Those sick because of extreme heat can be difficult to diagnose, in part because they can show up with milder symptoms such as headaches or fatigue that can be influenced by other health problems." www.nytimes.com/2024/07/12/u...

"CCRIF said Beryl was "very reminiscent" of 2004's Hurricane Ivan, which caused the United States some $20 billion in damages and $6 billion in the Caribbean, costing both Grenada and the Cayman Islands losses totaling 200% of their annual GDP." www.reuters.com/world/americ...

Leaders from Beryl-battered Caribbean say urgent climate financing neededwww.reuters.com The leaders of small Caribbean island nations on Thursday said that financial damages wrought by Hurricane Beryl would run beyond their capacities and urged lenders to ease financing costs to address the worsening impacts of climate change.

Houston: “As the climate warms, the impact of wild weather on the power grid is becoming an increasing concern for utilities, regulators and the federal government across the country." www.wsj.com/us-news/clim...

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“European [oil] refineries were designed in the sixties and the seventies,” said Alan Gelder, vice president of refining, chemicals and oil markets at consultancy Wood Mackenzie Ltd. “The world’s got hotter since then.” ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/searing...

Searing Heat Triggers Fuel-Supply Worries at Oil Refineries in Europe and Beyondca.finance.yahoo.com (Bloomberg) -- Temperatures in Europe are getting close to levels at which some oil refineries would have to start making less fuel.Most Read from BloombergSaudis Warned G-7 Over Russia Seizures With ...

"Climate experts are clear that carbon credits should only be used to offset hard-to-eliminate emissions such as some of those that result from certain industrial processes including steelmaking." www.ft.com/content/9e19...

Microsoft and Occidental sign carbon credit deal to help offset AI energy surgewww.ft.com Agreement comes as tech groups seek to meet climate promises while expanding power-hungry artificial intelligence

"But COP29 officials said the Azeri fund would form a starting point for fossil fuel companies to contribute, by setting up a mechanism through which they could either donate lump sums or portions of revenue." www.ft.com/content/05d2...

Azerbaijan to start climate fund with $500mn of oil moneywww.ft.com COP29 host intends to launch venture with a contribution from state company

"Houston is still strangled by the chaotic aftermath of Hurricane Beryl, which struck the country’s fourth-largest city on Monday as a Category 1 hurricane." finance.yahoo.com/news/houston...

Houston Power Outages Still Top 1.3 Million With Slow Recoveryfinance.yahoo.com (Bloomberg) -- The lights are slowly turning back on Houston — though the key word there is slowly. Most Read from BloombergSaudis Warned G-7 Over Russia Seizures With Debt Sale ThreatHurricane Beryl ...

Ireland / wild salmon: "Salmon fishing aficionados say these threats include run-off from agricultural fertilisers, sea lice spreading from the fish farming industry, other pollutants entering rivers and predators." www.ft.com/content/aeba...

Wild salmon were an Irish icon. Now they’re almost gonewww.ft.com The nation’s inability to protect a species that has such cultural power looks both cavalier and foolish

Property insurance & climate risk: "Firms that rely on coarser measures of wildfire risk charge relatively high prices in high-risk market segments -- or choose not to serve these areas at all. Empirical results are consistent with a winner's curse, ..."

"European insurers’ stocks fell as the storm raised worries that an unusually active storm season will drive up claims. Munich Re and Swiss Re, the two biggest reinsurers, continued their slide Wednesday, after dropping 3.3% and 4% respectively in trading Tuesday." finance.yahoo.com/news/hurrica...

Hurricane Beryl Is Bearing Down on Jamaica With Tree-Snapping Windsfinance.yahoo.com (Bloomberg) -- Hurricane Beryl is barreling toward Jamaica, where residents were told to stay indoors as the storm threatens to make landfall later Wednesday with tree-snapping winds and dangerous sto...

"Carbon offsets developer C-Quest Capital LLC said it reported former Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Newcombe to US federal law enforcement for his role in allegedly issuing millions of environmentally worthless carbon credits." finance.yahoo.com/news/ex-gold...

Carbon Offsets Developer Reports Ex-CEO to Feds Over Bad Creditsfinance.yahoo.com (Bloomberg) -- Carbon offsets developer C-Quest Capital LLC said it reported former Chief Executive Officer Kenneth Newcombe to US federal law enforcement for his role in allegedly issuing millions of...

Martin Wolf in FT: "A hundred years from now, people are likely to remember our era as the time when we knowingly bequeathed a destabilised climate. The market will not fix this global market failure." www.ft.com/content/b2b6...

Market forces are not enough to halt climate changewww.ft.com Investor returns imply that the welfare of future human beings is close to irrelevant

"Last fall, a study in the journal Scientific Reports found that Atlantic hurricanes from 2001 to 2020 were twice as likely to grow from a weak storm into a hurricane of Category 3 or higher within 24 hours than they were from 1971 to 1990." www.nytimes.com/2024/07/01/w...

Why Beryl Is a Bad Sign for This Year’s Hurricane Seasonwww.nytimes.com The storm grew very quickly after it formed, reflecting hot ocean conditions that could bring more dangerous hurricanes.

"Allowing companies and countries to meet climate commitments with carbon credits is likely to slow down global emission reductions while failing to provide anything like the scale of funds needed in the Global South,” the group said in a statement." finance.yahoo.com/news/carbon-...

Carbon Credits Face Fresh Blowback as NGOs Unite to Slam Offsetsfinance.yahoo.com (Bloomberg) -- The market for carbon credits is facing a renewed wave of opposition as climate activists deliver a fresh warning to companies and governments not to use such financial instruments to o...

Ember Climate: "Indonesia and the Philippines have seen limited growth in their renewable electricity generation, as their wind and solar potential remains almost entirely untapped." ember-climate.org/insights/in-...

Indonesia & Philippines coal surges past China & Polandember-climate.org Coal dependency continues to grow rapidly in Indonesia and the Philippines, as both countries surpassed Poland for coal share of generation in 2023.

India: " In the past 10 days, at least four bridges — either being built or just completed — have collapsed in the central Indian state of Bihar." www.nytimes.com/2024/06/27/w...

Part of Roof Collapses at India’s Busiest Airport After Heavy Rainswww.nytimes.com At least one person was killed when parts of the roof caved in and crushed vehicles at Indira Gandhi airport in New Delhi, according to an official. All domestic departures were suspended.

US Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen at joint event with USAID on financing climate resilience: "Extreme weather events, including heat waves, continue to become increasingly severe and frequent, from the East Coast of the United States to India ..." home.treasury.gov/news/press-r...

Remarks by Secretary of the Treasury Janet L. Yellen on Extreme Heat Financinghome.treasury.gov As Prepared for DeliveryGood morning. I’m glad to be co-hosting this event with Administrator Power. Thank you, Samantha, for moderating. I’m also glad to have Senior Advisor Podesta joining us. And t...

“All these disasters are like a cultural climate change price signal,” he [David Bowman, Tasmania] said. “Sure, we can be stubborn and press on regardless of a changing climate — but, in the end, the climate will win.” www.nytimes.com/2024/06/25/w...

Heat Is Killing Thousands, and Big Events Have Not Adjustedwww.nytimes.com The deaths of at least 1,300 pilgrims during the hajj point to the growing threat that climate change poses to beloved gatherings.

"Given the disruptions and additional costs, some increase in shipping rates is unavoidable. But those dependent on the industry argue that the carriers are increasing prices beyond the recovery of their own additional costs." www.nytimes.com/2024/06/24/b...

‘It’s All Happening Again.’ The Supply Chain Is Under Strain.www.nytimes.com As Houthi rebels intensify strikes on vessels headed for the Suez Canal, global shipping prices are soaring, raising fears of product shortages and delays.

Indonesia energy transition minerals: " The global availability of battery-quality nickel has improved since the project was conceived, BASF said Monday in a statement. The company no longer sees the necessity for such a substantial investment, it said." finance.yahoo.com/news/basf-ex...

BASF to Exit $2.6 Billion Nickel Smelter Project in Indonesiafinance.yahoo.com (Bloomberg) -- BASF SE plans to discontinue a project with Eramet SA to spend as much as $2.6 billion building a nickel-cobalt refinery in Indonesia, reversing an earmarked investment in the Southeast...

"Vishwas Chitale, who leads the climate resilience team at the New Delhi-based Council on Energy, Environment and Water, said making localized weather predictions and changing the times of year farmers plant their crops accordingly can help." apnews.com/article/indi...

“Should the world’s emissions continue in a business-as-usual scenario, temperatures in Mecca will rise to levels that the human body cannot cope with,” Shahin Ashraf, [Islamic Relief] head of global advocacy, said in an emailed statement on Friday." www.nytimes.com/2024/06/21/w...

Official Death Toll From Hajj Pilgrimage Climbs Into the Hundredswww.nytimes.com Searing heat in Saudi Arabia appeared to at least contribute to many of the deaths.

“Unsurprisingly, heat waves are getting deadlier,” said Friederike Otto, a climate scientist at Imperial College in London, in a statement on Thursday." www.nytimes.com/2024/06/21/c...

Well Beyond the U.S., Heat and Climate Extremes Are Hitting Billionswww.nytimes.com People all over the world are facing severe heat, floods and fire, aggravated by the use of fossil fuels. The year isn’t halfway done.

"[Brazil] sold 7-year notes at a yield of 6.375%, down from initial price talk in the 6.625% area, according to people familiar with the matter [...]. The notes will be used to repay public debt & to finance projects under its sustainability framework." ca.finance.yahoo.com/news/brazil-...

Brazil Sells $2 Billion in Sustainable Global Bondsca.finance.yahoo.com (Bloomberg) -- Brazil returned to global capital markets for the second time this year with a $2 billion sustainability bond, joining a string of developing nations selling new debt. Most Read from Bl...

"In 2023, the amount of gas flared worldwide rose by nine billion cubic meters (bcm) to 148 bcm, its highest level since 2019." www.worldbank.org/en/news/pres...

Global Gas Flaring Jumps to Highest Level since 2019www.worldbank.org In 2023, the amount of gas flared worldwide rose by nine billion cubic meters (bcm) to 148 bcm, its highest level since 2019. The increase resulted in an additional 23 million tonnes of carbon dioxide...