Is there really a last mile in inflation? Using Cleveland Fed nowcasts, here’s the picture for core PCE; bear in mind that lagged shelter is still exaggerating the numbers. That bump early this year looks like an aberration.
Not sure how you extrapolate much of anything from those plots, guess that’s why I‘ll never win the prize. Unfortunate there is so little public push to lower rates, we could use some animal spirits before November
