Which reminds me that I used to run the office Oscar pool and I decided to turn to expert predictors to make my own predictions, so I checked who had the best track records. And the expert reviewers, the big respected talking heads, had unbelievably bad track records. Worse than chance, often.
Like, I guess people generally don't look to see if they were right last year, and the year before, and so on? And just keep paying them to blither on?
Just as with political pundits.
BTW the people with the best Oscar prediction records were some of the "psychics." This doesn't mean they were actually psychic, of course, just that they happened to have very reliable intuition (or whatever method they were using).
I remember when Bill Murray was on SNL he'd make Oscar predictions, and IIRC he batted around 1.000. Stephen Colbert swept the table the one year I saw him do it too. As insiders, they had a sense of where the industry was leaning.
