2/n Non-linear, convex relationship between temperature & child health
Outcomes are minimised at 16.7-18.9°C.
Temperatures in Tunisia, Rwanda, Zimbabwe, Malawi, Ethiopia, Uganda & Kenya are already beyond this range
Higher frequency of heatwaves & drought worsen child health.
3/n Socioeconomic drivers matter!
Higher levels of wealth and education are associated with smaller negative impacts of climate change.
This implies both that climate change may be increasing inequality, and that inequality is an important determinant of health outcomes.
4/n We compute #policyrelevant projections of child health using #CMIP6 warming scenarios
Results show clear global health co-benefits of low emission scenario mitigation strategies
Stark difference between Paris Agreement target scenario & near-catastrophic scenarios.
5/n Considerable spatial heterogeneity in projections
S. Arabia, Chad, Kuwait & Burkina Faso projected to experience the highest increases in child mortality in the mid-term.
Sudan, Ethiopia, Kenya, Niger, Mali & Mauritania likely to experience the highest increases in long term.
6/n Estimated health co-benefits suggest that both mitigation and adaptation will be needed for decades to come.
Three areas: reducing air pollution, improved diets, & more active lifestyles.
Results makes clear that LMICs will find it increasingly difficult to achieve the SDGs
7/n As health of LMIC populations tend to be most harmed by climate change, the health co-benefits from more rapid emissions reductions are likely to be greatest in these countries.
There is tremendous potential health co-benefits from both mitigation and adaptation strategies.
