Some books: The Good Word (1978), The Hitler Conspiracies (2020), In Defense of History (1999), The Book of the Month (1986), Slow Horses (2010), Freedom’s Dominion (2022), A Meaningful Life (1971) ...statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Andrew Gelman et al.
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How do you interpret standard errors from a regression fit to the entire population? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
My comments on Nate Silver’s comments on the Fivethirtyeight election forecast | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Polling averages and political forecasts and what do you really think is gonna happen in November? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Bill James hangs up his hat. Also some general thoughts about writing vs. statistics. Also I push back against James’s claim about sabermetrics and statistics. | Statistical Modeling, Causal Infere...statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
The recent Iranian election: Should we be suspicious that the vote totals are all divisible by 3? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
A message to Christian Hesse, mathematician and author of chess books | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
“How bad are search results?” Dan Luu has some interesting thoughts: | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
“Our troops with aching hearts were obliged to fire a part of the town as a punishment.” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
19 ways of looking at data science at the singularity, from David Donoho and 17 others | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
(Trying to) clear up a misunderstanding about decision analysis and significance testing | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
A guide to detecting AI-generated images, informed by experiments on people’s ability to detect them | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
The election is coming: What forecasts should we trust? | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Cross validation and pointwise or joint measures of prediction accuracy | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
You can guarantee that the term “statistical guarantee” will irritate me. Here’s why, and let’s go into some details. | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
“What do we need from a probabilistic programming language to support Bayesian workflow?” | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Grappling with uncertainty in forecasting the 2024 U.S. presidential election | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
“A Columbia Surgeon’s Study Was Pulled. He Kept Publishing Flawed Data.” . . . and it appears that he’s still at Columbia! | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Holes in Bayesian statistics (my talk tomorrow at the Bayesian conference, based on work with Yuling) | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Interactive and Automated Data Analysis: thoughts from Di Cook, Hadley Wickham, Jessica Hullman, and others | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
Toward a Shnerbian theory that establishes connections between the complexity (nonlinearity, chaotic dynamics, number of components) of a system and the capacity to infer causality from datasets | St...statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu
It’s lumbar time: Wrong inference because of conditioning on a reasonable, but in this case false, assumption. | Statistical Modeling, Causal Inference, and Social Science statmodeling.stat.columbia.edu