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We use time series forecasting to estimate missing membership activity (subscriptions, renewals, reimbursements) and members and conclude that Shakespeare and Company Project datasets include 93% of membership activity and 96% of members.
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We calculated a “borrowing capacity” based on known subscription limits & discovered members went over subscription limits and Sylvia Beach got more lenient in later years. We compare to a handwritten tally from 1931: 75 books out is 2x our estimate!
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We used Copia by Mike Kestemont, @folgertk.bsky.social et al. on Shakespeare and Company lending library books, treating each borrow as a “sighting” of a title. We estimate the data includes 64-76% of books despite only ~26% of borrowing activity.
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Speculation! We implemented recommendation systems using known Shakespeare and Company borrowing to predict missing borrowing activity. Hemingway is our test case: his early membership borrowing records don’t survive, lots of documentation to check our results (letters, book catalogs).
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