There's no question that the dial has shifted on Brexit, and that it will continue to shift, but I'm afraid what these results are going to show is that we're still some distance from being able to have a more sensible national conversation about rebuilding our relationship with Europe.
This is a very good night for Labour, but we're also seeing Reform beat the Tories into second place in a number of seats. Both Reform *and the Conservatives* are going to take note of those percentages, and that means we're a long way from detoxifying our politics, even given a big Labour win.
In terms of Brexit, what this means is that Starmer can't (and has already said he won't) go full-on for rejoining the EU/realigning with the single market. I do think he'll very quietly start to lay the groundwork, but that means a series of small, individual deals, carried out very gradually.
Not entirely, unfortunately. What we're also seeing is a significant vote in percentage terms for Reform (pro-Brexit hard-right), but under our system it won't translate into a large number of seats in Parliament.
Not really. They support no more upheaval, which a move to reverse Brexit would create. Also, the only way they could win was by appealing to former Labour voters in the Red Wall who voted Leave. They will slowly move towards greater alignment w/out actual rejoining.
Please don't repeat that "long game" nonsense.
1. Polling shows 80%-90% of Labour voters want to rejoin. Diehard Leavers went to reform.
2. Starmer has ruled out rejoining the Single Market, Customs Union or EU "in his lifetime". He's also lied about it "not benefitting growth".
So if he said "I intend to rejoin the EU within the next five years" you don't think the EU might respond "Not so fast, kimo sabe"? I am certain if he were a private citizen he would be arguing the merits of rejoining (the DM is convinced he would also). As it is, he'll have to sneak up on it.
