Too Big to Fail: The last time a VP won after their President's term was up was George H.W. Bush, and the time before that was Martin Van Buren after Andrew Jackson's term was up (both one-term Presidents, incidentally).

Added benefit of a Kamala win now is that she could run again as an incumbent in 2028 and that’s another four years that Alito and Thomas have to survive

pretty good chance she runs as an incumbent in 2028 if Biden wins too though

I don't love our chances of winning four in a row regardless, but we'll save that for another day.

VP winning after their President’s term is up is unfortunately uncommon (although same could be said about her chances right now)

The last time a VP won after their President's term was up was George H.W. Bush, and the time before that was Martin Van Buren after Andrew Jackson's term was up (both one-term Presidents, incidentally).

Yeah - though ultimately, there just aren't that many presidents and each election has a lot going for it.

Like you need the combo of a two-term POTUS, who finishes up while relatively popular, and has a VP who is interested in the presidency, AND wins both the nomination and the election.

Biden '16 (did not run) Cheney '08 (did not run) Gore '00 (lost general) Bush '88 (won general) Nixon '60 (lost general) Marshall '20 (did not run) Stevenson '96 (not nominated) Wilson '76 (died) Van Buren '36 (won general) Tompkins '32 (*) Gerry '16 (died) Clinton '08 (died) Adams '96 won general

So Daniel Tompkins. Elected governor of New York in 1807, and re-elected in 1810, 1813, and 1816. During the War of 1812, he took on a military role and personally financed some of the war effort, and couldn't get reimbursed. The governor election was in April '16, so the VP nom came later.

Served with Madison from 1816-1820, but while the sitting VP, he ran for governor of New York, and lost to DeWitt Clinton. Madison kept him on the ticket, and he was re-elected from 1820-1824. By 1825, he was broke and a severe alcoholic, dying right after he left office.

Sorry, *Monroe* kept him on the ticket, not Madison.

VP's who tried to run for election after the President's term was up: Al Gore, 2000, lost general Richard Nixon, 1960, lost general Alben Barkley, 1952, lost primary Thomas Marshall, 1920, lost primary Adlai Stevenson (not that one), 1896, lost primary John Breckenridge, 1860, lost general

Yeah - though Truman was eligible in 1952 (and spent some time planning to run)! Wilson was technically eligible in 1920, too, but he was cooked.

mid-19th century presidents seemed less interested in re-election for some reason

A bunch of them promised to be one-term Presidents and I really don't have any idea as to why.

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