Nathaniel Rakich: *Consistent* overperformance in special elections has historically been correlated with general-election success. Democrats have now overperformed in 2023-24 special congressional elections by an average of 7 points.

With virtually all ballots counted in #OH06, per the AP, Rulli's final margin over Kripchak is 9 points. This is a Trump+29 seat, so that's a 20-point overperformance for Democrats.

*Consistent* overperformance in special elections has historically been correlated with general-election success. Democrats have now overperformed in 2023-24 special congressional elections by an average of 7 points.

Turns out that "The Southern Baptist Convention owns your uterus" isn't actually a winner. Who knew?!

Would that be enough for Brown to win statewide in November though?

Browns's a tough out. All the pro worker vibes without the cultural war baggage. And his opponent is a joke.

Pretty sure r-squared for vibes is much higher though.

It's all over the place, too. Special elections outperform polling. Likely voters outperform registered voters by 3-4 points, and outperform general polls by 5-6 points. Someone has an enthusiasm problem.

Overperformed Biden? Or PVI?

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