Ben Casselman

@bencasselman.bsky.social

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Econ/data/etc for The New York Times. Adjunct at CUNY Newmark. Ex: FiveThirtyEight, WSJ. He/him
📸: Earl Wilson/NYT

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OK, time for a 💹🧵: Starting with the unemployment rate, which ticked up to 4.1%. That's still low, but it marks the end of a historic period of unemployment at or below 4%. #NumbersDay

U.S. employers added 206,000 jobs in June and the unemployment rate ticked up to 4.1%, the first time it has been over 4% since November 2021. #NumbersDay Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2024/07...

Job openings ticked up in May (but only because April was revised down). Layoffs edged up. Quits basically flat. All consistent with a gradually slowing, but not collapsing, job market. #NumbersDay Full data: www.bls.gov/news.release...

Job Openings and Labor Turnover Summary - 2024 M05 Results www.bls.gov

Not that I have any illusions this will be the main focus of today's discourse, but... May data! Income: +0.5% Spending: +0.2% Consumer prices: FLAT m/m, +2.6% y/y Core prices: +0.1% m/m, +2.6% y/y Data: www.bea.gov/news/2024/pe... #NumbersDay

www.bea.gov

Fed officials left interest rates unchanged, as widely expected, and indicated they expect to cut rates just once this year, down from the three cuts they had penciled in back in March. Fed statement: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p... Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2024/06...

Federal Reserve issues FOMC statementwww.federalreserve.gov Recent indicators suggest that economic activity has continued to expand at a solid pace. Job gains have remained strong, and the unemployment rate has remaine

One thing I hear from consumers is that they aren't feeling the drop in inflation because prices are still rising for the basic items they have to buy often. Well, grocery prices were flat in May (+1% y/y). Clothing prices were down (+0.8% y/y). So were gas prices (+2.2% y/y).

U.S. consumer prices were flat in May (NO increase), and were up 3.3 percent from a year earlier. Excluding volatile food and fuel, prices were up 0.2 percent month-over-month and 3.4 percent year-over-year. Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2024/06...

Live Updates: Inflation in Focus as Fed Meetswww.nytimes.com New data on prices will be released shortly before Federal Reserve officials announce a decision on interest rates and issue fresh economic forecasts.

Time for some 📈📉! This was the smallest job gain since October. But 175k isn't bad -- it's much closer to what economists would expect at this stage in the cycle. This is consistent with a story of steady job growth, rather than the acceleration we had seen in recent months. #NumbersDay

U.S. employers added 175,000 jobs in April, a substantial slowdown from recent months. The unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9% but remained below 4% for the 27th consecutive month.. #NumbersDay Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2024/05...

Not doing a full CPI thread today, but seems notable that the rent-OER gap has persisted for three months now. Still unclear if that's the result of random noise, a methodological quirk, or something more fundamental in the housing market. #NumbersDay

Consumer prices rose 0.4 percent in March and were up 3.5 percent from a year earlier. “Core” prices (excluding food and fuel) were up 0.4 percent from February and 3.8 percent from March 2022. Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04... #NumbersDay

A late-on-jobs-day SCOOP: The @BLS_gov shared more information about inflation with Wall Street “super users” than previously disclosed, emails from the agency show. The latest on this saga, from me and @jeannasmialek.bsky.social: www.nytimes.com/2024/04/05/b...

OK, chart time! Starting with the headline: Yet another unexpectedly strong month for job growth. For all the talk of "cooling," monthly gains have been extremely steady for more than a year. #NumbersDay

U.S. employers added a stronger-than-expected 303,000 jobs in March and the unemployment rate ticked down to 3.8%. Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2024/04... #NumbersDay

As expected, the Fed keeps rates unchanged for the fifth straight meeting. Still pencils in three more cuts this year. #NumbersDay Statement: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p... Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2024/03...

OK, had to delay my usual in order to write something for my actual employer, but a few belated charts on this jobs day. #NumbersDay

Substantial downward revisions to both December and January. Down by a combined 167,000.

U.S. employers added 275,000 jobs in February and the unemployment rate ticked up to 3.9 percent. #NumbersDay Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2024/03...

New BLS release: "In January 2024, the proportion of OER weighted toward single-family-detached homes increased by approximately 5 percent." #EconSky www.bls.gov/cpi/notices/...

Very much a "which number are you looking at" inflation report today. On a year-over-year basis, PCE inflation cooled further in January, to +2.4%. But inflation picked up on a month-to-month basis, particularly in "supercore" (core services excluding housing). #NumbersDay

Big pop in income in January (+1% month-over-month) was driven by Social Security COLA and by dividends, which rose 4.1%. Along with continued strong earnings growth. #NumbersDay

"This time really was different," and other lessons from the surprisingly resilient job market recovery. #NumbersDay #EconSky www.nytimes.com/2024/02/14/b...

U.S. consumer prices rose 0.3 percent in January, and were up 3.1 percent from a year earlier. Core prices (excluding food and fuel) were up 0.4 percent m/m, 3.9 percent y/y. #NumbersDay Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2024/02...

HOT DAMN: U.S. employers added 353,000 jobs in January. The unemployment rate held steady at 3.7 percent. #NumbersDay Data: www.bls.gov/news.release... Full coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2024/02...

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged, as widely expected. And it hinted it will be cautious about cutting rates. #EconThreads #NumbersDay Statement: www.federalreserve.gov/newsevents/p... Live coverage: www.nytimes.com/live/2024/01...

Wage growth continued to slow in the fourth quarter. Headline Employment Cost Index up 0.9% (vs 1.1% in Q3). Wages and salaries also +0.9% (vs 1.2% in Q3). Same basic story in private sector. Over past 12 months, wages up 4.3%. #NumbersDay Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...

Job openings *rose* slightly in December (and November was revised up). Quits edged down; layoffs ticked up. Big picture: Job market still solid. #NumbersDay Data: www.bls.gov/news.release...

How far has inflation fallen? Overall consumer prices (as measured by PCE) have risen at an ***0.5% annual rate*** over the past three months. Core prices are also running under the Fed's 2% target. And even "supercore" (core services ex-housing) is running barely above. #NumbersDay

Consumer spending ends the year with a bang: +0.7% in December. After-tax income +0.3%. Consumer prices (headline and core) up 0.2% month-over-month. Year-over-year prices up 2.6% (headline) and 2.9% (core). #NumbersDay Full data: www.bea.gov/news/2024/pe...

The U.S. economy grew at a 3.3 percent annual rate in the fourth quarter. For the full year (measured from Q4 to Q4), inflation-adjusted GDP rose 3.1 percent -- definitely not what forecasters expected when the year began. Data: www.bea.gov/news/2024/gr... Full story: www.nytimes.com//2024/01/25/...

BLS has released Q4 data for its experimental "New Tenant Rent Index." Shows a *big* drop in rents for new leases in late 2023. But notable that the "all tenant" index, which follows a similar methodology but includes ongoing leases, is closer to the CPI's rent measure. #EconSky #NumbersDay