It seems undeniable that Heritage et al. are going to use every line in the rule book (and several that don't exist) to try and strike any replacement from the ballot in eg OH/TX/WI, and my faith in them getting stopped is strictly constrained by my faith in the Roberts/Kacsmaryk judiciary
Other reasons I would add:
-polling is and has been dog shit relative to election results and even before the debate kept showing, like, Trump up 12 with young voters, which is on its face not credible
-The Dems did basically no canvassing in 2020, this time they will go hard
-The GOP DID canvass in 2020, this time they have outsourced GOTV to Charlie Kirk's outfit
-We are 9 days out from the debate and there is not a single non-Kamala name that people are focusing on
-Kamala is backing Joe
-Trump is also well into the type of batteries+sharks fantasia that bad actors want us to think Biden is - the longer the media sits on this angle the likelier it is that Trump starts to defuse it by just saying stuff
