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The way I look at it is that Trump had huge advantages in 2016 & still had to draw an inside straight to win the Electoral College. He’s never come close to winning the popular vote. I don’t play cards much anymore, but I was always happy to be at the table with people who depended on luck to win.
I'm constantly marveling at Trump's luck as a politician. He only won in 2016 because he ran against one of the Democrats' weakest candidates. In 2024 he ends up running against someone even weaker.