With the SC GOP primary Saturday, I wanted to post a working paper with Gall Sigler:
"Not Of Primary Concern: Stability, Ideology, and Vote Choice in U.S. Primaries, 2008-2024"
It's preliminary, so feedback or pointers to work we missed esp. welcome.
papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
Curious how much evidence there is of factional voting in recent primaries?
As a teaser, here are the correlations for NH primaries between credible GOP candidates.
Correlation of Trump vote b/t 2016, 2024? 0.63.
The paper reports over-time fluidity in primary voting at the individual level, too.
There is some evidence of consistent factional voting, but also a lot of fluidity.
