Kabir K.

@kabirkhanna.bsky.social

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Elections & Data Analytics @ CBS

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Differences by 2020 vote are even more pronounced, with Trump '20 voters being about 30 points more likely to favor immunity for Trump than for U.S. presidents generally U.S. presidents? Trump voters 52% Biden voters 10% Non-voters 27% Donald Trump? Trump voters 81% Biden voters 12% Non-voters 29%

Heterogeneous effects in split-half experiment *US presidents* should have immunity from criminal prosecution for actions they take while serving Dem 16% Ind 30% Rep 45% *Donald Trump* should have immunity from prosecution for actions he took while president Dem 10% (-6) Ind 36% (+6) Rep 67% (+22)

As Supreme Court considers presidential immunity, six in ten Americans say Trump should NOT have immunity from prosecution for actions taken while president Most don't feel U.S. presidents generally should either But two in three Republicans want immunity for Trump www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-i...

CBS News poll analysis: Should Trump have immunity? Should all presidents?www.cbsnews.com Most Americans don't believe Trump should have immunity from criminal prosecution for actions taken while he was president. Some Republicans disagree.

Small shifts observed since spring concentrated among lesser engaged voters... In March, Trump was leading those not thinking about 2024 race much by double digits, but they split evenly now Same thing for those who skipped recent election (2020 and 2022) Read more www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-tr...

Support from key parts of Biden coalition have inched up More women now say abortion major factor in vote — those that do largely backing Biden Black support continues to lag 2020, but it's up from March And improvements with independents (Note: Given timing, can't pinpoint exact time of shifts)

Trump and Biden neck and neck nationally and in battlegrounds — CBS News pollwww.cbsnews.com There have been small shifts as Biden draws more Trump opposition; but Trump holds edge on many qualities.

Another reason Biden is doing a tad better in battlegrounds, including his lead with independents: his '20 voters sticking with him at slightly higher rate there than nationally — small but potentialy critical difference (We oversampled AZ/GA/MI/NC/NV/PA/WI, which went Biden+1 in aggregate in 2020)

We have seen a turnout gap favoring Republicans for several months in national surveys But in *battleground* states today, Democrats are just as likely as Republicans to say they will definitely vote (From our new CBS News/YouGov survey fielded June 5-7, including battleground oversample)

NEW Trump verdict pales in comparison to all other issues tested as factors for voters — economy and border continue to favor him But more Biden voters activated out of opposition to Trump since spring In all, close race nationally and in battleground states More: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-tr...

As expected, Trump verdict didn't immediately produce big shifts in views (prior views predict current almost perfectly) But firmest beliefs held by those paying closer attention — those who haven't heard a lot may be more persuadable And non-MAGA Rs: fewer say loyalty to Trump important vs. March

Overall opinions of verdict are in line with what views of Trump's guilt or innocence were before verdict reached Of those who thought Trump was guilty before verdict, nine in ten now say the jury reached the right verdict — vice versa for those who thought he wasn't guilty 2/5

We recontacted Americans we surveyed during Trump's trial, and hearing verdict hasn't changed many minds Most of country says the verdict was right and the trial was fair, but Republicans continue to feel Trump's been treated unfairly, calling charges political www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-v... 1/5

www.cbsnews.com

Back-of-the-envelope math shows Haley voters' potential impact always small 74 million Trump votes in 2020 <5 million Haley primary voters so far Our polls suggest about half voted Trump in '20 If ALL Haley voters turned out in '20, they would only be 5M➗2➗74M = 3% of Trump voters (maximum) 1/2

As Trump's NYC trial wraps up, most Americans believe Trump is guilty of a crime 56% majority today says Trump's definitely or probably guilty (views highly partisan) But less certainty about what jury will decide — only about half expecting a conviction Read more: www.cbsnews.com/news/trump-t...

Our latest battleground data indicates Trump is polling better among irregular voters than consistent ones... Pooling MI, PA, and WI, Biden and Trump are roughly even with voters who turned out in both '20 and '22 Trump is up ~10 pts with those who skipped at least one of those years

MI/PA/WI are even Majorities rated state economy badly four years ago during pandemic Evaluating Trump today, voters focus on pre-pandemic economy; many feel they'd be better off financially with him But Trump/Biden elicit more worry than confidence, lots of anger www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-t...

Adding RFK to mix doesn't dent Biden margin in Michigan Kennedy drawing more interest from types of voters backing Trump (closer on views of economy, immigrants, NYC trial) Context: third-party numbers are mix of genuine support and voicing protest early in cycle, typically do worse at ballot box

Voting is a choice between alternatives We don't see young voters flipping based on views of Israel-Hamas conflict Those who want Israel to stop military actions in Gaza choose Biden at similar rate to young voters overall (And Biden's approval decrease among young may be more related to economy)

We found two-thirds majority of the public last year wanting abortion pill Mifepristone to remain available in states with legal abortion, amid concerns among many women that reproductive health care is becoming harder in the U.S. More here: cbsnews.com/news/abortio...

According to this year's exit polling, here's the percentage of GOP primary/caucus voters who say Biden *legitimately* won presidency in 2020 IA 29% CA 30% NC 31% OH 32% (preliminary estimate from early exit poll data) SC 36% VA 41% NH 46% Still an important attitudinal fault line within the party

Our first battleground-state poll of cycle With Biden/Trump about to clinch nomination, Georgia redux looks close Trump has three-point lead (well within MOE) — edge driven by sliver of Biden '20 voters now leaning Trump, boosted by favorable pocketbook evaluations www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-tr...

In the end, Trump won every GOP contest on Super Tuesday, other than the GOP primary in Vermont (a narrow Haley win) He has accumulated enough delegates so far that he remains in position to clinch a majority next week (this Tue, March 12)

Super Tuesday by the numbers… 16 Dem contests with 1,420 delegates at stake (includes American Samoa + Iowa) 15 GOP contests with 865 dels at stake Delegates to clinch nomination: 1,968 Dem 1,215 GOP Dem del count: 206 Biden 2 Uncommitted GOP del count: 276 Trump 43 Haley 9 DeSantis 3 Ramaswamy

Given SCOTUS decision possibly coming tomorrow, reupping polling on removing Trump's from ballot (fielded 1/3-5) Public divided on states removing Trump for insurrection, with 54% opposed % saying keep Trump on ballot: 90% Republicans 56% independents 19% Democrats www.cbsnews.com/news/jan-6-o...

🚨possible expressive responding Three in four Republicans say they expect lower prices if Trump is elected Not lower inflation, but lower *prices* — as in, costs of things will drop due to Trump's second-term policies More from latest CBS News/YouGov national poll: www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-tr...

Republicans currently enjoying 10-pt advantage on self-reported turnout likelihood Larger than in '22, implying '24 electorate even on '20 vote Race would tighten if D motivation grows this fall (but still have defection issue, especially w/ Biden '20 independents) www.cbsnews.com/news/poll-tr...

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Kabir K.

New article alert! 🚨 "Partisanship in the #MeToo Era" My article w/ @mirya.bsky.social is now out in the current issue of Perspectives on Politics. Really proud of this one, & absolutely thrilled to collab w/ Mirya. This one actually started w/ a Twitter convo! www.cambridge.org/core/journal...

Exit polling in first three Republican nominating contests reveal large diploma divide on key attitudinal measures Solid majorities of non-college GOP primary voters in each state don't think Biden won legitimately College grads are more divided, with majorities in NH and SC saying he did 1/2

"Uncommitted" finishes with 13% of votes in Michigan Dem primary, as well as two delegates — that's from exceeding the 15% qualifying threshold in both the 6th and 12th congressional districts Biden wins 81% of votes and 98% of delegates (Actual delegates to fill these slots to be selected in May)

Context for Michigan today: "Uncommitted" has tended to get around 20K votes there in recent presidential primaries Democratic: 19K (1%) in '20 22K (2%) in '16 21K (11%) in '12 238K (40%) in '08 (NOTE: Obama not on ballot) Republican: 28K (4%) in '20 23K (2%) in '16 19K (2%) in '12 18K (2%) in '08

I was told I had a confirmation bias problem, but I found a bunch of information suggesting I'm just fine

I was once warned about acquiescence bias, and I strongly agree

Reposted by

Kabir K.

With the SC GOP primary Saturday, I wanted to post a working paper with Gall Sigler: "Not Of Primary Concern: Stability, Ideology, and Vote Choice in U.S. Primaries, 2008-2024" It's preliminary, so feedback or pointers to work we missed esp. welcome. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....