I get why people are scared of stuff like this but I think it’s 100% consistent with what I’ve been saying for a good while now, that Biden’s polling is softer (less personal enthusiasm, differential response) among people who are 98% likely to turn out for him in November.
"[T]he new poll shows [Biden] winning 84% of voters who backed him in 2020, while Trump is winning a much larger share of his 2020 voters, some 95%."
www.wsj.com/politics/ele...
Yeah, it will be interesting to see what happens when they switch to a likely voter screen. Unfortunately is going to make it difficult to isolate the effects of that.
Right, I get why people are nervous. They’re right to be! And I don’t know that I’m right (though I’d like to be). But given special elections and midterms I have thought for a bit that these results were more a proxy for general approval, which looks less correlated with vote share than it used to.
Man, me too. I feel like personally it’s useful to believe it is in order to keep up efforts to help make it happen rather than resign myself in July to a loss that is not at all set in stone.
Yeah when head to heads show stuff like Biden-Trump (43/43) and Michelle Obama-Trump (54/43) and the like, I think the reasonable inference is ppl are registering unhappiness with Biden but they're not gonna vote Trump. This seems a common incumbent pattern as well
Like I think I remember a similar dynamic with Obama's reelection. Ppl were like polling Obama-Romney and Oprah-Romney with Oprah up by similar margins to Michelle here. Didn't mean Obama was going to lose
That last line, “suggesting that Biden hasn’t shifted focus to Trump” is a pretty fucking rich way for media outlets to depersonalize themselves out of events.
The funniest part is the piece has a paragraph on not surveying Harris toplines, and Trump not having a running mate (because his paramilitary tried to murder pence) is left unstated.
