Some poll rules of thumb for today.
1) After major events, beware differential nonresponse producing a temporary bounce for the candidate with more enthused supporters.
2) Remember people aren't accurate at predicting what will change their views. As always, direct vote choice is the best question.
3) People are even worse at predicting what will change **other people's** opinions. Questions about this tell you basically nothing about the state of the race. A big issue here is the Third Person Effect, in which people think things that haven't changed their views will still persuade others.
