a lot of people misunderstand the "vibecession" debate. the question isn't "is the economy good?" the question is "what explains the unprecedented disconnect between consumer sentiment and economic performance?"
so you can't just say "inflation" or whatever and be done with it, because we've had inflation before, and this didn't happen. it also doesn't explain why this phenomenon is happening almost exclusively in the united states.
so the real question is whether there is something historically novel that this economic data isn't picking up, or whether it is, in fact, vibes (meaning, most likely, a media product)
this, in some form or another, is the most common response to this data, but it is completely missing the issue. if this data is "completely untethered from your average worker's material reality," then why was it an extremely good predictor of sentiment until 4 years ago?
Dope slap me if you want for this halfass thesis
The US economy is retail. Shopping on Amazon sucks. Dollar stores reign. Consumer products are so cheaply made that I have a deep pessimism about things I used to be excited about. Toys R Us and Bed, Bath, & Beyond were devoured by private equity...
The entire retail experience is awful. Employment is good. Wages are good. Stock market is good. It's taking that money out into the world and just finding everything is trying to take more of it and give you less. "Wanna buy some software or watch a movie? Fuck you, it's a subscription now."
None of the GDP, employment, real wages, inflation, and workforce participation metrics matter when a combination of Fox News is telling them it sucks and the ice cream carton that used to be a half gallon is now less than 3 pints and $2 more.
One of the top Verge articles is "Just buy this printer, it's fine" and it resonated because everyone buying a printer has come from a bad experience and finding good faith reviews is nearly impossible with SEO.
