As pax Americana, yeah I think we'll be okay. I think some of these wars are going to get way more bloody soon. Some evidence of that already starting with Adviika.
tbh i think if you're looking for signs of danger to the global liberal order it's probably europe that will raise alarm bells over the next 10 years or so
Democratic backsliding (based on vibes) I’d worry about Europe and (if Trump wins or gets close) the US.
Actual conflict flashpoints I’m worried more about China and to a lesser extent the DPRK.
echoing james's point i still think we're a long way off from a serious likelihood of actual conflict with china. gun-to-my-head i kind of think taiwan is ultimately resolved peacefully in the coming decades
with europe: the italians are the italians so that one wasn't too worrying. but the dutch elections and things like the rise of afd and potentially the national rally winning in 2027 in france are pretty worrisome
eurosceptic parties come to power and unravel or mortally wound the eu. maybe another currency crisis is triggered by a recession. "first slow, then fast" kind of thing
at the end of the day i just don't think it's worth it to china if we're committed to protecting taiwan and can continue to rally allies to it. you let china claim some kind of symbolic victory on this or that in a way that allows them to let it go but let it go they do hopefully
which i think is what biden is trying to do: make it plain that, while we might not fight them directly, we will make the cost so astronomical that they need to think long and hard
