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I have personally encountered people who voted for Trump in 2016 and then got too grossed out to do it again in 2020. They really do exist.
yeah people act like it's 100% the cult but there are soft trump supporters who actually don't like that he's a criminal scumbag and because our system is stupid it doesn't take all that many of those to stay home to swing it
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i live in a rural area with a lot of white retirees (aka prime bad people demographic). zero trump signs this time around. there were a LOT in 2020. and a lot of those stayed up a while.
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one could assume a not insignificant percent fell prey to maga media, and made poor decisions regarding covid and aren't there anymore or came through the gauntlet somewhat wizened.
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i'm sure some died. but a lot more are dispirited and demotivated.