Global temperatures have finally started falling over the past few weeks, with the first week of July only 1.35C above preindustrial levels. Weather models expect a continued decline over the next seven days.
July is currently on track to be the first month since June 2023 to not set a new monthly global temperature record (though it would still have been the warmest July by a wide margin in the absence of 2023's exceptional heat).
Here are all the historic July global temperatures since 1940 in the ERA5 dataset, along with this year's projected July temperature (and uncertainty range) based on the first week of the month:
