Dr Vanessa: Are french poll predictions better than ours b/c i sure would not be celebrating a victory until the votes were actually counted and the alliance made.

Are french poll predictions better than ours b/c i sure would not be celebrating a victory until the votes were actually counted and the alliance made.

This is a genuine question btw, I’m seeing people in full on celebration mode & assume it is for good reason but i can’t find the answer?

Our exit polls are fairly accurate though! I think that the margins of error we’re talking about here preclude a major shock?

I would presume the second-roundness makes it slightly easier to predict like-for-like contests. Plus, to be fair, the British exit poll wasn't *that* far off.

I think I’m now so deeply scared of false hope I can’t comprehend going all in on even a mild uncertainty.

I posted about this - apparently French exit polling is based on the pollsters being able to sample actual ballot boxes while voting is still underway, which means the exit polls are usually exemplary in terms of reliability.

Oh, cool, thank you, that’s a very different situation then.

Glad to hear this, I shared the same concerns

(Ironically, this was a similar situation to the one that led to a coup in Bolivia)

I'm relying on information from the News Agents podcast rather than direct knowledge of the system but I feel optimistic about its reliability!

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