John Holbein

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John Holbein

@johnholbein1.bsky.social

Associate Professor of Public Policy, Politics, and Education @UVA.

Co-author of "Making Young Voters."

I share social science.
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"just win all elections" seems like an unsustainable path to preserving our democracy
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Did you know that parents' college major influences their kids' major choice? I didn't! "University graduates are two to five times as likely to hold a degree in the field that their parents graduated from." Fascinating. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers....
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is "the effects you find are modest" a valid reason for rejecting a manuscript?
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the greatest threat to modern universities
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COVID-19 vaccine mandates at U.S. universities saved *a lot* of lives. Gated: jhr.uwpress.org/content/earl... Ungated: rileyacton.github.io/rileyswebsit...
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Interesting. Is there really a child earnings penalty in the long run? "In the short run, we find a large penalty immediately after the birth of the first child" "In the long run, the child penalty fades out, disappears completely, and even turns into a child premium" docs.iza.org/dp16959.pdf
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my totally unsolicited end-of-the-semester advice to junior scholars is to keep the nice notes that students write to you in a safe place so you can reference them when things get tough in the future.
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You never forget the first time you learn universities’ overhead rates on external grants.
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Folks who teach American government/politics: I'm trying to put together a list of resources (i.e. readings/textbooks/videos/podcasts/etc.) for international students and others who have little exposure to American government/politics. What should I definitely include? #Polisky
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Reminder: you don't have to be a prick to be a successful academic.
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Cool! "We include a bird's eye view of the spatial distribution of racial sub-populations, numerical grids for calculating racial diversity within user-defined regions, & precalculated maps of racial diversity" Paper: osf.io/preprints/so... Data: socscape.edu.pl
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Political scientists have debated about whether football results affect how citizens vote This new paper examines citizen responses to futbol results "We find that lucky victories enhanced public opinion about leaders, while unlucky losses lack compensating effects" osf.io/preprints/so...
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Are immigrants more innovative? Yup. Immigrants tend to 1.) make up a higher share of business owners and 2.) operate more innovative and productive firms. This "implies [immigrants make] large contributions to U.S. innovation and growth." osf.io/preprints/so...
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Hey you! Check out this cool new paper. "War Causes Religiosity" The authors scraped web images of hundreds of thousands of gravestones of deceased U.S. Americans. People who were randomly drafted into war are at least 20% more likely to have religious gravestones osf.io/preprints/so...
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Wizard: John Holbein is now sharing research papers on Bluesky. Homer Simpson: That's good! W: The research found lots of coding errors. H: That's bad. W: But at least we know about the errors. H: That's good! W: The coding errors contain potassium benzoate. H: W: H: W: That's bad. H: Oh.
Wow. "Mass Reproducibility and Replicability: A New Hope" "We uncover coding errors for about 25% of [econ/ps] studies." "52% of re-analysis effect size estimates are smaller than the original published estimates" iza.org/publications...
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🚨Are feminine traits a liability in elections? My latest with André Blais at Acta Politica is now online!
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Wow. "Mass Reproducibility and Replicability: A New Hope" "We uncover coding errors for about 25% of [econ/ps] studies." "52% of re-analysis effect size estimates are smaller than the original published estimates" iza.org/publications...
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Despite other works suggesting gun violence increases votes for Democrats, after correcting for improper model specification, gun violence shows little evidence of increasing Democratic vote share, finds @hjghassell.bsky.social @johnholbein1.bsky.social doi.org/10.1017/S000...
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Check out my latest with the great Hans Hassell out in the APSR today!
How to explain different findings on the effects of gun violence? It's because work finding large effects on vote doesn't account for parallel trends violations. Once corrected, shootings show little evidence of sparking large electoral change Now out at APSR www.cambridge.org/core/journal...
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Simply platforming right-wing activists via interviews can increase public support for right-wing views and perceptions of the popularity of such views. Really cool use of audio as a stimulus by @dianebolet.bsky.social & @florianfoos.bsky.social osf.io/preprints/so...
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Which colleges increase voting rates? For a long time, we've studied whether going to college shapes voting. But, does it matter *where* you go to college? Yes! A great deal. Check out my new paper with Smith, Bell, and Imlay. iza.org/publications...
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"We find that Southern counties where Democrats lost in presidential elections between 1880 and 1900 were nearly twice as likely to experience Black lynchings over the subsequent four years."
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Did you know that mass shootings cause large surges in Americans’ engagement with gun policy? They do. Our new article just out in PNAS Nexus. academic.oup.com/pnasnexus/ad...