The correlation between a bio that suggests extensive rigorous studying of presidential elections and political communications and confident doomer takes is close to -1.
There's a lot to be said, genuinely, for the social flattening of social media. But it has some real costs too.
Super tuned in political partisans need to understand that they dont (& largely cant!) understand the way that undecided voters perceive this sort of stuff, but basically all of our political commentary--both from pundits/reporters & some ppl online--is based entirely on the fallacy that they do.
The part of it that really gets me is the negative correlation on the confidence.
I know, I know: academics are notorious for answering "... it's complicated" even for "is today Monday?"
But still. The confidence I see sometimes in their replies is still surprising.
I met my first undecided acquaintance today. Their reason is that they don’t have enough information. It became clear to me that we inhabit different worlds.
