Jonathan Bernstein: As I said, hard to separate. But the one-day polls seem (*seem*) to show less of an effect than those taken later -- which are capturing both the debate and the freak-out effect. But absolutely it's hard to know.

To the extent we're able to tell (and we probably can't) it sure looks like the *debate* shift in the polls was very modest but the post-debate Dem and media freak-out shift in the polls may be somewhat larger. Still small enough that all of it could easily dissipate quickly. Or not! At any rate...

Counterpoint: Polls are conducted over a number of days. We are now seeing the full impact of the Biden omnishamble.

As I said, hard to separate. But the one-day polls seem (*seem*) to show less of an effect than those taken later -- which are capturing both the debate and the freak-out effect. But absolutely it's hard to know.

I'm hoping, nay expecting, that Biden's numbers will improve once Trump v United States filters through the polling system.

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