MI/PA/WI are even
Majorities rated state economy badly four years ago during pandemic
Evaluating Trump today, voters focus on pre-pandemic economy; many feel they'd be better off financially with him
But Trump/Biden elicit more worry than confidence, lots of anger
www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-t...
I'll never understand the people who think the economy was good under Trump even pre-Covid. The only thing he did was cut taxes for the rich, and that doesn't help 99% of us
Incomprehensible that these polls are taken seriously with such tiny samples. Give me 10% or get out.
These CBS News/YouGov surveys conducted between April 19-25, 2024. They are based on representative samples of 1,287 registered voters in Michigan, 1,306 in Pennsylvania, and 1,245 in Wisconsin.
A poll of 1000+ people is statistically valid, even for populations larger than a single state. You can take issue with the sampling *methods* but not the size of the sample.
10% minimum response. Polls used to be dumped as unrepresentative if they contacted, say, 10k ppl and only 25% responded. Now polls get around 8% response and are treated normally.
I see. This guy does mean number of respondents. Yes, that's silly. But my point about how they get them still stands. It's why current polling has been so far off vs recent elections, ballot measures.
I don't entirely disagree, but I would say that polling has been fairly good overall. It pretty much conforms to election result especially if you retroactively fix your assumptions about the electorate (which indicates the responses are fine and representative)
I do agree overall with your point.
When elections or initiative results are +8% off it doesn't. Just bc the poll said x would win, if they won by 4 and were expected to win by 24 it matters. Or a ballot initiative that was expected to be close is a blowout.
In a normal election with hundreds of races it will be more obvious.
Nothing makes you more cynical about the ability of voters to make rational decisions than looking at poll results like this.
Q: Trump?
A: GOOD!
Q: 2020?
A: BAD!
Q: Contradiction?
A: NOPE!
MI/PA/WI are even
Majorities rated state economy badly four years ago during pandemic
Evaluating Trump today, voters focus on pre-pandemic economy; many feel they'd be better off financially with him
But Trump/Biden elicit more worry than confidence, lots of anger
www.cbsnews.com/news/biden-t...
