Quick update on how hurricanes (tropical cyclones) are affected by climate change. Hurricanes that form will be:
1) more intense
2) bring more rain
3) bring higher storm surge
The only real uncertainty is how climate change will affect the *number* of these storms. There is significant uncertainty in both the magnitude and sign of the change, but most of the evidence suggests fewer tropical cyclones.
My personal favorite paper on this front:
"In this paper, the authors review the state of the science regarding what is known about tropical cyclone frequency.
The state of the science is not great."
These authors have quite a way with words ๐
Yeah I'm pretty sure that particular sassy take is a Sobel line ๐
It's the paper I always have in the back of my mind when financial regulators ask me to predict hurricane freq distribution in 10 year increments by emissions scenario...