Quick update on how hurricanes (tropical cyclones) are affected by climate change. Hurricanes that form will be:
1) more intense
2) bring more rain
3) bring higher storm surge
The only real uncertainty is how climate change will affect the *number* of these storms. There is significant uncertainty in both the magnitude and sign of the change, but most of the evidence suggests fewer tropical cyclones.
the preponderance of evidence is that tropical cyclone numbers will decline. however, we don't have a good theory for what processes regulate the number of TCs, so it's hard to have confidence in that result. but it is robustly true that the TCs that do form will be more destructive.
My personal favorite paper on this front:
"In this paper, the authors review the state of the science regarding what is known about tropical cyclone frequency.
The state of the science is not great."
These authors have quite a way with words 😅
Is location also up in the air?
I'd speculate that the band they form/hit would widen except that I'm also expecting AMOC to end* which might move it Southwards and the Gulf of Mexico geography is probably relevant (big shallow** area).
* wild guesses as to when
** comparatively
