Kelly Hereid: 2023 Canadian wildfires produced CO2 emissions that were *quadruple* the global aviation sector. But because it's a physical hazard they don't "count" Physical risk 🤝 Transition risk HT @hausfath.bsky.social

2023 Canadian wildfires produced CO2 emissions that were *quadruple* the global aviation sector. But because it's a physical hazard they don't "count" Physical risk 🤝 Transition risk HT @hausfath.bsky.social

Canada’s 2023 wildfires outsmoked global aviation, yet emissions go uncountednews.mongabay.com On a June day in 2023, New Yorkers woke up to an eerie scene: the sky had turned a murky orange, the sun a dim red orb in the haze. The culprit? Smoke from wildfires hundreds of miles away, in Canada....

I don't think it's a simple choice as to whether they should be counted. How will carbon stored in forests change as CO2 rises (with other factors like land use staying constant)? As the linked paper discusses, we need complex land carbon models to answer the question: www.nature.com/articles/s43...

Enhanced future vegetation growth with elevated carbon dioxide concentrations could increase fire activity - Communications Earth & Environmentwww.nature.com A doubling of preindustrial carbon dioxide concentrations could increase fire activity by about 66%, largely due to enhanced vegetation growth, according to an analysis of future model simulations fro...

Agreed - it's a potentially nasty positive feedback with big error bars, and have to net out vegetation changes. Tricky.

Also, I wonder if papers talking about fires only are useful. I am mainly thinking to Australia : gigantic, terrible fires but in the years following, green boom ! Did it last ? How far are we from the initial CO2 storage levels ? Are Canada, Siberia going through the same path ?

🫱🏻‍🫲🏼Alles, was erst so unsichtbar ist und durch Folgen erst später sichtbar wird, ist gefährlich. Ob CO2-Emissionen aus Kohle, Öl und Gas oder radioaktive Strahlung.Gilt auch für vermehrte Waldbrände als Folgefolge. Abstand ist der beste Schutz. Nehmen wir Abstand von all dem. Kippkaskaden.

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