Zeke Hausfather

@hausfath.bsky.social

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"A tireless chronicler and commentator on all things climate" -NYTimes.

Climate research lead @stripe, writer @CarbonBrief, scientist @BerkeleyEarth, IPCC/NCA5 author.

Substack: https://theclimatebrink.substack.com/
Twitter: @hausfath

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This is an electoral platform I could get behind in the US: a left that builds. Though for better or worse, a lot of these (e.g. planning/zoning) are primarily state rather than federal responsibilities in the US.

Global temperatures were extremely hot in June 2024, at just over 1.5C, beating June 2023's previous record-setting temperatures by 0.14C and coming in around 0.4C warmer than 2016 (the last major El Nino event). Now 2024 is very likely to beat 2023 as the warmest year on record

I generally steer clear of politics here, but sometimes there are moments when things need to be said. Biden is too old to run an effective campaign for president at this point. For the good of the country, he should step aside for someone younger and more fit to meet the moment.

We’ve long talked about the carbon budget, but given that the world is on track to pass the 1.5C target in the coming decade its time to start talking about the "carbon debt". My latest piece over at The Climate Brink: www.theclimatebrink.com/p/the-growin...

The growing carbon debtwww.theclimatebrink.com Why the climate change is different from other environmental challenges

The world has warmed around 1.3C since the mid-1800s. Effectively all of this warming is due to emissions of CO2 and other greenhouse gases. But we'd have experienced substantially more – ~0.6C (0.2C to 1.2C) – if planet-cooling aerosols were not masking part of that warming:

We often focus on global temperatures, but land regions where we all live have been warming much faster. For #showyourstripes day, here are land, ocean, and global climate stripes shown on the same color scale:

With half the month now behind us, June 2024 is very likely to be the warmest June on record. It is on track to beat 2023's record by nearly 0.2C, and may represent an ominous sign that global temperatures are not falling very quickly despite the fading of El Nino conditions.

Heading over to Oxford, UK, this week for a conference. Let me know if you are around and want to grab a pint!

Recently we've seen a vibrant debate on when the world will firmly pass 1.5C. Over at @carbonbrief.org I weigh in with a new analysis, finding that it will most likely occur in the late 2020s or early 2030s in a world where emissions do not rapidly decrease. www.carbonbrief.org/analysis-wha...

The new Forster et al paper led to some confusion on the topic of warming acceleration. Here's their GWI calculation of human contribution to the decadal rate of warming. We see a recent uptick to ~0.26C/decade, ~50% higher than the ~0.18C for most of the period since 1970.

Our paper proposing a new generation of Representative Emissions Scenarios is now officially out in the journal Geoscientific Model Development: gmd.copernicus.org/articles/17/...

Two preprints out for open peer review on climate impacts of 2020 IMO low-sulfur marine fuel regs find different results: Skeie et al find 0.06 to 0.09 w/m^2 forcing, while Quaglia and @danvisioni.bsky.social find 0.2 w/m^2. Another paper will be out in Geophysical Research Letters shortly.

May 2024 was the warmest May on record by a large margin, beating the prior May record set in 2020 by nearly 0.2C and coming in at 1.52C above preindustrial levels. With 5 months of data in, 2024 is broadly on track (~75% chance) to beat 2023 as the warmest year on record:

There is a new estimate of the impacts of the IMO low-sulfur marine fuel regulations by Tianle Yuan and colleagues. Unfortunately, the paper's problematic assessment of global temperature response substantially overstates near-term warming impacts: theclimatebrink.com/p/a-problema...

With half the month of data in, its very likely (>95% chance) that May 2024 will be the warmest May on record, extending the streak of record breaking months to 12 in a row:

The last 12 months (through April) have been the warmest on record by a large margin, at 1.65C (± 0.07) above preindustrial levels.

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Zeke Hausfather

Record-shattering ocean heat gobsmacked scientists in 2023, and it's continued into 2024. My story today on the staggering persistence of this global ocean heat, and on the alarming early projections for this year's Atlantic hurricane season: www.eenews.net/articles/his...

Historic ocean heat wave heralds dangerous hurricane seasonwww.eenews.net Marine temperatures in the North Atlantic broke records for more than a year. That could contribute to an active summer of storms.

Have ideas for novel approaches that permanently remove carbon from the atmosphere? Frontier is opening up its 2024 pre-purchase cycle: frontierclimate.com/apply

Apply to be a Frontier supplierfrontierclimate.com We look for permanent carbon removal solutions that have the potential to be low-cost and high-volume in the future, even if they’re not today.

It’s not particularly surprising when you ask scientists how hot they think the world will get in 2100 they give you answers more or less in-line with current policy scenarios in the literature (e.g. around 2.7C +/- 1C): www.theguardian.com/environment/...

With four months of data now in from ERA5, we see a roughly 66% chance that 2024 will surpass 2023 as the warmest year on record – and a >99% chance it will be one of the top-two warmest years. The current best-estimate is that 2024 will come it at just above 1.5C:

Excellent @carbonbrief.org article by Vince Cooper and Kyle Armour discussing their recent paper finding that new estimates from the last glacial maximum suggest that high climate sensitivity (>4C per doubling CO2) may be less likely than previously thought: www.carbonbrief.org/guest-post-i...

A lot of folks have been fixated on changes to sulfur in marine fuels of late, but the much bigger climate story here is the nearly 50% decline in overall global emissions of planet-cooling sulfur dioxide since 1980 – much of which has happened in the last 15 years:

After 2023's "gobsmacking" temperatures, are we returning to a more predictable climate in 2024? I explore the question (and celebrate our 1-year blog anniversary) over at The Climate Brink: www.theclimatebrink.com/p/warmest-ap...

The use of biomass for carbon removal is an understandably fraught topic. Today Frontier published a set of high-level sustainable biomass sourcing principles that will help us navigate the complicated landscape of biomass-based CDR projects: frontierclimate.com/assets/bioma...

Today Frontier announced a $58.3M offtake for 152,480 tons of permanent carbon removal by 2027 with Vaulted Deep. This is a good example of turning harmful waste like biosolids previously spread on fields or incinerated into safe CDR: frontierclimate.com/writing/vaul...

Frontier buyers sign $58.3M in offtake agreements with Vaulted Deepfrontierclimate.com Vaulted Deep will permanently remove 152,480 tons of CO₂ by 2027 on behalf of Frontier buyers.

Quite enjoyed hearing Hannah Richie discuss her new book on the Ezra Klein show this week, which gave a cautiously hopeful perspective on both the progress we have made on cleaning up our environment and how far we still have to go: podcasts.apple.com/us/podcast/i...

‎The Ezra Klein Show: Is Green Growth Possible? on Apple Podcastspodcasts.apple.com ‎Show The Ezra Klein Show, Ep Is Green Growth Possible? - Apr 30, 2024

The first quarter of the year is off to an exceptionally warm start, as I discuss in a new Q1 State of the Climate Report over at @CarbonBrief: www.carbonbrief.org/state-of-the... ⬆️ Warmest Jan, Feb, March, and April (to date) by ~0.1C ⬆️ 2024 on track to be warmest or second warmest year

"I hope we’re going to return to a predictable regime, but if we keep setting records, then we have to revisit some of our assumptions." @washingtonpost.com has a good article featuring @climateofgavin.bsky.social, me, Clair Barnes, and Kiswendsida Guigma: www.washingtonpost.com/climate-envi...

Earth’s record hot streak might be a sign of a new climate erawww.washingtonpost.com Each of the past ten months has been the hottest on record – an unprecedented streak of unprecedented temperatures that has fueled alarm among climate scientists.

Theres an important new study from many of the leading researchers on paleoclimate and climate sensitivity. They provide a new, more robust estimate of climate sensitivity from the last glacial maximum, suggesting a sensitivity of 2.9C (95% CI: 2.1 to 4.1C): www.science.org/doi/10.1126/...

For every degree C that Earth’s atmospheric temperature rises, the amount of water vapor in the atmosphere can increase by about 7%. A warmer world is a one with heavier precipitation events, even in places where average rainfall may remain unchanged. www.carbonbrief.org/explainer-wh...