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This Nate Cohn article on Trump’s over-performance among less frequent voters is worth your time, and has at least two important implications folks should be considering that the article doesn’t directly address, one substantive and one methodological www.nytimes.com/2024/06/15/u...
If Everyone Voted, Would Biden Benefit? Not Anymore.www.nytimes.com Inside the unusual dynamic shaping the 2024 campaign.
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I can’t comment on the methods, but I wonder about the implications for applied politics. At the state level, Reps have worked to make voting harder (e.g. voter ID, limit vote by mail) and it was assumed to be for political advantage. Are they actually hurting their own voters?
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Possibly. But at least in some places, they have been targeting voting methods that have been used by Democrats, like mail voting, as opposed to early in person voting, which was more heavily used by Republicans.
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Oddly enough in FL mail voting was very Republican, if I recall, until Trump discredited it in 2020. Now they have indeed made it more difficult but it remains to be seen who will be more disadvantaged. This predates the 2020 election: www.brennancenter.org/our-work/ana...
Who Votes by Mail?www.brennancenter.org There is little reason to believe that mail ballots would uniformly help Democrats in November.
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In the early naughties, republicans completely dominated absentee voting in Colorado. Starting in 2004, Democrats copied them. Then Dems passed automatic mail ballots in 2014 (everybody always gets a ballot) and they probably caused enough low propensity republicans to vote that Mark Udall lost.