The strongest indicator that Gavin Newsom fans don't know what they're talking about is how many times I've seen people earnestly argue that his nomination would guarantee Democrats the California electoral votes, as if California currently has a chance of going for Trump in 2024.
I know people who think a Newsom/Harris ticket would win. They're both campaigning for Biden. And they say they've been following this stuff for years. If so, they've not learned a damn thing. Incumbents already have an advantage. Sure, the orange jackass has some, but he's insane.