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I like to panic as much as any Democrat, but my general view still holds: SCOTUS gave Dems a tailwind with Dobbs. We haven't even started the wall-to-wall attack ads of Trump bragging about ending Roe v. Wade. When that happens in September and October, there will be a big movement away from Trump.
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The ads won't be about that. They'll be clips of his vacant stare and "Do you want this to be the person across from Xi?"
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GOP attack ads will be all about Biden's mental state. They will land, but they will not hit nearly as hard as Dem attack ads about abortion.
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The attack ads I've seen so far combine inflation and dementia. Even though inflation is way back down, the fact that prices are well up since 2020 is a vulnerability.